Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Regional Differences And Affecting Factors Of Credit Risk For Smes

The small and medium-sized enterprises(hereinafter“SMEs”)have always been characterized by small size,large quantity and vitality.It plays an important role in promoting economic development,expanding employment,enhancing market prosperity and improving people's life.Because of the unbalanced development of the domestic economy,there are still overcapacity in some sectors.Compared with large mature enterprises,SMEs are not only facing severe business and competition environment,but also limited financing channels.The upstream and downstream credit risk of the industry chain may be transmitted to each other,and the private lending behavior is more likely to cause a chain reaction of default,thus breaking out the credit crisis.On the other hand,the geographical environment,resource endowment,opening up level,education level,local financial expenditure and the agglomeration degree of SMEs are different in different parts of China.Many factors affect the credit risk of SMEs in different regions,so the regional credit risk evaluation of SMEs is more and more concerned by the society.This paper pays attention to the above situation.The first problem to be solved is to evaluate the credit risk of SMEs.At present,the typical methods include expert analysis,credit scoring,internal credit risk model and so on.Before the evaluation,in order to better test the applicability of different measurement model,the classical credit risk model Z model and the modern credit risk model KMV were used to evaluate.Through the test of risk identification ability and early warning ability,a model which is more suitable for credit risk assessment of SMEs in China is selected.On the basis of the above research,this paper divides the research area into three major zones,eight economic zones and 31 provinces according to the geographical and economic characteristics,and then use the relevant data of SMEs in various regions as research samples.Based on the evaluation of credit risk in different regions,the regional differences of credit risk are discussed.The study found that: first,from the overall trend of view,SMEs credit risk gradually reduced,but in recent years has increased.Second,there are obvious differences in credit risk of SMEs in different regions.The inland region has higher credit risk,such as northwestern China and the southwest China.The middle belt is second.The eastern coastal region is relatively low.The above conclusions are in line with economic development in our country.Through the above research,this paper argues that it is necessary to consider the geospatial effect in the analysis of regional credit risk.According to the spatial autocorrelation test of credit risk measurement results in different regions,we find that there is significant spatial dependence.The spatial lag model(SLM)and the spatial error model(SEM)are used for the empirical analysis.Then the Lagrange multiplier and the robust Lagrange multiplier are used to test the applicability of the model,and a better model is selected.According to the conclusions of this study,the following policy recommendations are put forward to reduce the credit risk of SMEs.First,break the boundaries of ownership and change the disadvantaged position of SMEs.Second,improve the level of opening up of all regions,especially in the central and western regions.Third,promote the balanced development of education in different areas and improve the comprehensive management level of credit risk of SMEs.Fourth,expand the financing channels for SMEs and reduce the financing costs of SMEs.Fifth,promote the construction of SMEs credit system,the financial regulatory authorities of all regions to take credit supervision measures can not be "one size fits all".