Research On Commodity Housing Demand Forecast Of Qingdao Under The New Economic Normal Situation

As a pillar industry of China's national economy,the development of the real estate economy has a very important impact on other industries and the overall economic side.With the "new normal economy" put forward by our leaders,since 2014,the real estate market has entered a new stage of reducing gear shift,improving quality and efficiency.Under the macro background of China's economy entering new normal,Qingdao real estate industry should be based on the current characteristics of social economic development,maintain a common mentality on the strategy to meet the new normal of real estate.In view of the current major task of housing program in Qingdao,the analysis and prediction of the demand for commodity housing has become an important proposition.Therefore,this paper takes the demand for commodity housing in Qingdao as the research object,and establishes the regression prediction model of housing demand based on PCA.The main research questions are as follows:(1)To state the connotation,characteristics and significance of new normal economy;demand,supply rule,relative theory in real estate,the principal component analysis method,EViews software and SPSS software used in the paper.(2)To analyze the influencing factors of Qingdao housing demand,and predict the future housing demand,by taking Qingdao city as an example,through the research of the current situation China's commodity housing market and the analysis of the development trend.(3)To fully grasp the new economic norm,with the main element analysis method,EViews software and SPSS software,by means of market research and collecting statistics;to study the current residential housing and housing demand;combining the housing development and sales this year in Qingdao,to analyze various factors affecting the housing demand,construct a main element analysis method of demand regression model,and to analyze the changes of Qingdao housing demand trend deeply.The paper studies the economic new normal form of the commodity housing demand taking Qingdao commodity housing as an example,combines the domestic realestate industry status and development trend and similar research of commodity housing demand problems,uses the method of combining the qualitative and quantitative analysis,based on the analysis of the actual data,summarizes the main influencing factors of Qingdao city housing demand,and combining the function model to sum up the housing demand trend of Qingdao in the next five years.Through the analysis,the main achievements are as follows:studying the current development of the real estate and its trend and making some beneficial attempts on housing demand factors quantitative analysis;combining the housing needs of1999-2014 raw data in Qingdao,putting forward the housing demand regression model of Qingdao to predict the Qingdao commodity housing demand.The research and the calculation results of SPSS software and EViews software show that the established prediction model of commodity housing demand in Qingdao is scientific and reliable,and has certain practicability and reference significance.