Research On The Demand Forecast And Development Of Shenyang Ensuring Housing

Housing construction not only affect economic development, but also has a relation to people's livelihood. Recently, in order to solve the housing problem of the families with medium or low income, governments at all levels highly values ensuring housing construction and development. Shenyang ensuring housing construction is developing based on the state relevant policies, which has become an ensuring housing system mainly composed of public rental housing and affordable housing. This paper states the current situation of Shenyang ensuring housing construction, forecasts its demand, and puts forward some suggestions on Shenyang ensuring housing development.Shenyang ensuring housing management has been developed, but still exists some problems, including its construction, admittance and quit management, rent pricing mechanism, operation management. And it points out the problems of Shenyang ensuring housing, including that ensuring housing policy is not perfect, lacking of funds for construction, financing channel sole, lack of the information sharing platform and so on.This article uses GM (1,1) model to forecast the quantity of Shenyang urban population and family average population in the next five years; calculateds the proportion of ensuring housing by using the income distribution function method which based on the per capita income of residents of Shenyang,and forecasts the population of Shenyang ensuring housing protective object. Then forecasts the demand quantity and areas of Shenyang for 2014-2018 based on the population of protective object and the average households quantity. In addition, the article calculateds the demand-supply gap of Shenyang ensuring housing.It puts forward some suggestions on Shenyang ensuring housing development based on the current construction situation and results of demand forecasting. Firstly, improving related policy such as financial, tax, land policy. Secondly,widening financing channel and improving financing scheme, including increasing government financial vestment strength, introducing the folk capital, attempting PPP financing mode and so on. Thirdly, perfect the mechanism of rent pricing. And strengthening leasing management. At last, perfecting ensuring housing admittance and quit management by a serious of measures. For instance, establisheding department interaction mechanism, realizing information sharing, setting up special management organization, and carrying out effective system of rewards and punishment.