An Analysis On Determinants Of Chinese Agricultural Products Export To Japan

Chinese agricultural products exported to Japan reached to USD 10.198 million in 2015,which occupied 14.53%of total volume of Chinese agricultural products exported with a decrease of 1.63%on year-on-year basis.Japan is the first major exporter of Chinese agricultural products and China also is the importing country of agricultural products to Japan.In May 2006,Japanese government started to implement Positive List System so as to tighten technical barriers to trade,which influenced export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan.Meanwhile,the trade diversion effect generated by regional FTA signed between Japan and other countries will also impact export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan.In addition,the macroeconomic condition,political and cultural factors in China as well as Japan significantly affected export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan.For these reasons,the export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan is full of great uncertainty.By means of considering above factors comprehensively,this paper researched the influence of these factors in exporting Chinese agricultural products to Japan.Firstly,according to the trade data of exporting Chinese agricultural products to Japan over the decades,this paper analyzed the relationship of agricultural products' trade between China and Japan,which showed that the trade of agricultural products between China and Japan strongly complement each other.Secondly,from the perspectives of trade measures,economy of two countries,political and cultures,it analyzed the influence of these factors on exporting Chinese agricultural products to Japan.Finally,based on referring trade gravity model,the 1995-2015 time series model was established;the regression model was constructed by selecting variables such as Japanese GDP,value of Chinese agricultural production,number of Japanese rural population,amount of Japanese foreign direct investment,rate of RMB to Yen,Japanese non-tariff barrier,whether Japan signed FAT with other countries,and whether China-Japan political relationship is stable.The regression result indicated that,Japanese GDP and value of Chinese agricultural production are positive to export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan;number of Japanese rural population and Japanese non-tariff barrier are negative to export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan;rate of RMB to Yen,amount of Japanese foreign direct investment,whether Japan signed FAT with other countries,and whether China-Japan political relationship is stable do not influence the export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan prominently.According to above analysis results,this paper proposed suggestions for promoting the export of Chinese agricultural products to Japan.