The Practical Research Of Guangzhou's Real Estate Cycle

The experience of economics growth and development in many countries indicates that economics fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Like macroeconomy, the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation. As for the infant real estate industry in China, it is of more important practical significance to realize the fluctuation phenomenon in real estate industry, analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the periodic fluctuation of real estate industry and raise countermeasures to it.Based on the study of economic cycle theory and real estate cycle theory of China and foreign country and by analyze the data of 1979-2004(Guangzhou), this paper proved the existence of real estate cycle and use shock-transfer structure in economic cycle research, put out the shock-transfer structure of real estate cycle fluctuations, analyze the factors of macroeconomic policy, industry, economy, psychology that influence the cycle and give countermeasures to the cycle. It is of important indicating significance for analyzing the cycle fluctuation and decrease the fluctuations.