Statistical Research On Chinese Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation

As a guiding and the foundational industry, the real estate industry has been gradually developing along with the market-based reform of our national economy. After more than 20 years' development, it has already become the backbone industry of Chinese national economy. But its development certainly is not just a plain sailing, and actually it suffered many fluctuations, and its development also shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation. The real estate industry is widely correlative and strongly influencing, and the oversized undulation will make entire national economy in crisis. Therefore, research on real estate cycle fluctuation not only has the theoretically significance, also is helpful to instruct the real estate industry in the health development.This article mainly revolves three aspects: the influence factors of real estate cycle fluctuation, the impact-conduct model of real estate cycle fluctuation and the application of time series analysis and all-around PCA in the Chinese real estate cycle fluctuation.The article uses theorical and practical research. The theorical research is composed of first four chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces the research background, the significance and the research content; In the second chapter, the author summarizes the real estate fluctuational literature, and introduces several basic concepts; The third chapter introduces the elementary theory of real estate cycle fluctuation, and explains the efluctuation model; In the fourth chapter of real estate cycle qualitative analysis, the author uses hierarchy analytic method to explain the influence factors of real estate cycle fluctuation, in order to drew out the process of real estate cycle fluctuation. The factors could be divided into three part:core supply-demand relation, industrial market factor and society macroeconomic factor. This is the core idea of the article, and it can explain the function process of the impact-conduct model in a more logical and systematic way.The fifth chapter makes the practical research. The author uses the time series analysis and all-around PCA in the Chinese real estate cycle fluctuation of the yeea 1998 - 2005. Through simplificating 12 targets, the author finally uses a synthesis index to describe the path of the real estate economical system . From the diagram, we see, the real estate economical level tumbles the valley in 1999, rises the wave in 2004. The paper research shows, there are five factors influence the development of our real estate economy. They are disposable personal income, the real estate investment, the GDP rate of increment and national loan proportion. At the same time, Chinese real estate cycle influctuation is mainly effected by the macroscopic economical factors and the industrial market factors. And the former influence function occupies the dominant position. Among the industrial market fators, the supplies and the demand still are the most direct and decisive ones.Study from the basic theory to the practice analysis, the article uses the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis for the research of real estate cycle fluctuation. The application of time series analysis and all-around PCA in the Chinese real estate cycle fluctuation got a well result, and it is of important indicating significance for macroeconomic policy.