Interaction Between New Urbanization And Real Estate Market

With the continuous development of social economy,the urbanization of China process steadily.As of the end of 2016,the population-based urbanization level has reached 57.35%,China has entered the stagewhereurbanization develops rapidly.The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the concept of new urbanization,and emphasizethat we should adhere to the new urbanization of Chinese characteristics,promote the interaction between industrializationand urbanization,urbanization and modern agricultural,and promote the industrialization,informationization,urbanization and agricultural modernization developing synchronously.The core of the new urbanization is"people-oriented",pay attention to the quality of urbanization,abandon the extensive model of traditional urbanization,the new urbanization is coordinated and sustainable.Urbanization has brought power to economic.The phenomenon of population transfer,infrastructure construction and spatial agglomeration in urbanization has provided an opportunity for the development of real estate market.The real estate market is one of the most important areas of the macroeconomy.Although the real estate market started late in China,the real estate industry has gradually become one of the main driving force of the national economic in recent years since the reform of the housing system since 1998.As the real estate is the basic industry of the national economy,the development of the real estate industry has both positive and negative aspects tourbanization.Urbanization is necessary for realizing modernization,the real estate industry is also important for national economy.If the two can developcoordinated,it is bound to promote the national economy,so the study of the interaction between the two has important practical significance.Based on the existing research results,this paper combines the theory of Northam curve,Lewis population migration theory,central city driving and radiation regional development theory,real estate market supply and demand theory,constructs a theoretical model of the interaction between urbanization and real estate market:The new urbanization affects the housing prices by influencing the supply and demand.The real estate is the material carrier of the new urbanization,and the development of the real estate market has apositive promotion and reverse suppression on the new urbanization.In the empirical model,first,we construct a new evaluation index system of the comprehensive development level of urbanization,and select 24 indicators from 30 provinces in China except Tibet form 2003 to 2015,and use the improved entropy weight model to calculate the comprehensive development of new urbanization in different provinces.The results show:the top fiveofnew urbanization comprehensive development level are Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Zhejiang.There is a regional imbalance between the comprehensive development level of the new urbanization,and the comprehensive development level of urbanization in the eastern region is obviously higher than that in the central and western regions.Second,select the new urbanization comprehensive development level(U)on behalf of the urbanization indicators,real estate investment completion(INV)represents the supply of the real estate market,commercial housing sales area(SA)represents the real estate market demand,The average selling price of commercial housing(P)represents the price.Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015,the PVAR model was constructed by Eviews7.2 software to study the interaction between the new urbanization and the real estate market.The results show:U and LnINV,LnSA,LnP Granger causes each otherrespectively,indicating that the new urbanization and the real estate market has a two-way relationship.Impulse response function shows that INV and SA have a positive impact on U,on the whole,the development of the real estate market has a strong effect on the new urbanization,in short-term,P will also promotes the process of urbanization,but in the long run,high prices will increase the process of population transfer costs and inhibit the process of urbanization.In summary,thispaper makes the following recommendations:(1)to increase support for the new urbanization in the central and western regions;(2)to focus on quality and speed in the construction of new urbanization;(3)to save intensive use of land and open space for new urbanization;(4)optimize the real estate market supply structure,and guide the balanced development of the real estate market.