Study On The Benefit And Influencing Factors Of Grain Virtual Arable Land Trade In China

In recent years,with the increase of material wealth created by humankind,the world's resource depletion,deterioration of the ecological environment and other issues are gradually emerging,these major global problems have seriously hampered human society and the sustainable development of the economy.As the basic resources of the existence and development of human society,arable land resources is directly related to the survival a nd development of all countries.In China,which has large numbers of people but little space to spare,arable land resources is very scarce anyway.The scarcity of arable land resources is even more prominent coupled with the constantly deepening process of i ndustrialization and urbanization in recent years.In the context of global economic integration,there is more and more participation of China's agricultural products,especially the grain trade,which has aroused widespread concern in the international comm unity.Grain trade has existed since ancient times in China,but it was not until the 1990 s that scholars realized the "implied" existence of natural resources in grain trade.With the gradual expansion of the scale of China's international grain trade,virt ual arable land trade is more and more,which provides a new solution to the problem of arable land in China.The paper analyzes the present situation of arable land resources and the current state of grain virtual arable land trade,and then elaborates t he economic,social and ecological benefits brought by China's grain virtual arable land trade.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of grain virtual arable land trade from the aspects of supply,demand and price.The supply side mainly includes three areas: China's grain arable land area,China's grain yield level and global grain supply.The demand side mainly includes domestic grain demand,the growth rate of China's GDP and the dietary structure of our residents.The price factor is mainly about the ratio of international grain price to domestic grain price.Then,based on the theoretical analysis,this paper makes a further empirical analysis on the influencing factors of grain virtual arable land trade,mainly through the establishment of VAR model and impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis,obtained empirical research conclusions.Finally,in order to effectively gain the best benefit of the grain virtual arable land trade on the basis of guaranteeing our country's food security,this paper puts forward the specific measures from three aspects of supply,demand and price according to the theoretical analysis result and the empirical research conclusion,which provide guidance to China's arable land resources p roblem and food security issues.