Price Prediction And Big Data Service System Development For Garlic

In the market economy,the moderate fluctuation of the price is the normal reaction of the market mechanism,but the price fluctuation over a certain limit will bring adverse effects on the healthy development of the industry.In recent years,due to market speculation and follow suit,the frequent fluctuation of garlic prices has brought severe challenges to the steady and healthy development of garlic industry.The scientific prediction of garlic prices is an effective way to guide the adjustment of industrial planting structure and management strategy and ensure the healthy and stable development of garlic industry.With the rapid development of information technology,the emergence of new technologies,such as Internet of things,big data and artificial intelligence,has provided technical support for the improvement of industrial macro management and decision-making ability and the precision of price prediction.Based on the analysis and summary of relevant research at home and abroad,this paper has developed a big data service system for garlic in view of the problem of information asymmetry in the garlic industry,making full use of the concept of industrial chain management and the key technology of big data.On the basis of information collection,storage,pretreatment and analysis of garlic industry chain,the characteristics of garlic price fluctuation and influencing factors were studied,and the price of garlic was predicted.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)Study on the characteristics and influencing factors of garlic price fluctuationThe analysis of price fluctuation and influencing factors is the basis of studying price forecasting model and forecasting system.First,we use HP filtering and GARCH model to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of garlic price periodicity and agglomeration.The results of HP filtering analysis showed that the price fluctuation of garlic had obvious seasonal and cyclical characteristics.The highest value of each seasonal cycle is in January and February each year,the lowest value is in May and June each year.According to the analysis results of the GARCH model,the conclusion is obtained that the garlic price has obvious agglomeration,which is,garlic market price has a sustained or low phenomenon in a period of time.Then the factors affecting the price fluctuation of garlic were analyzed.Garlic prices were easily affected by supply,demand and policy factors,speculation,natural disasters and diseases and insect pests.(2)Study on the prediction model of garlic priceOn the basis of studying the overall fluctuation and local fluctuation characteristics of garlic price,in order to further quantitative analysis of the trend of garlic price development,in order to enhance the predictability of price,the traditional time series index prediction,modern time series ARIMA prediction and grey prediction method were selected to construct the short-term prediction model of garlic price respectively.The prediction model results show that the ARIMA prediction model has the best prediction effect.(3)Research and development of big data service system for garlicIn order to break the information asymmetry situation of the industrial chain,realize the efficient management of the garlic industry chain and the accurate forecast of price,integrated data collection,data storage,data preprocessing,data analysis and data visualization technology,combined with the garlic price fluctuation law model and prediction model.And completed the garlic industry big data service system overall framework and function module design.The system realizes the collection,storage and preprocessing of all the information of garlic planting,production,circulation and other links,which lays the foundation for the realization of the functions of big data.The research and development of the information subsystem and price prediction subsystem of the industry chain has realized the efficient management function of the industrial chain informatization and the prediction function of the garlic price.The research and development of garlic big data service system helps to realize the sharing of industrial chain information and break the information asymmetry of industrial chain.The study of price characteristic model and prediction model is conducive to the accurate prediction of garlic prices.System construction and model research are conducive to promoting the efficient,healthy and sustainable development of garlic industry.