Analysis Of Land Use Change And Driving Forces In Jinan Under The Background Of Urbanization

Land is an important carrier of human economic and social development,and urbanization is an inevitable trend of social and economic development.The interaction between urbanization and land use determines the complexity of various changes driven by urbanization.As the capital city of Shandong Province,Jinan has changed its land use structure under the social and economic background of urbanization and accelerated development.With the promotion of "four modernizations",Jinan is facing a series of challenges of land use conflicts and human land conflicts.For example,the situation of arable land protection is serious,the development space constraints are increasing,the ecological environment is destroyed,and the resources shortage caused by unreasonable allocation of resource elements and so on.This study takes Jinan,capital of Shandong Province as the research area,taking RS and GIS spatial analysis technology as the means.Guided by the theory of land use / land cover change and the relevant policies of national urbanization development.The characteristics of land use change under the background of urbanization in Jinan are analyzed from two dimensions of time and space.The driving mechanism of land use change is studied through statistical methods.In view of the impact of driving factors related to urbanization on land use change,suggestions for land use optimization in Jinan under the background of urbanization are put forward from the perspective of utilization and management.In the aspect of land use change characteristics,the four phase remote sensing images in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015 were processed and the temporal and spatial changes of land use were calculated.The results of the study show that: From the analysis of the quantity and dynamic degree of land use,the increase of land area includes urban construction land,cultivated land and water area,among which the annual change rate of urban construction land is the greatest,which is 7.32%.The reduced land classes include woodland,rural settlements and unused land,with the largest reduction in unused land,-1.76%.From the view of land use transfer,the transformation of cultivated land into urban construction land is serious during the study period.After 2000,the transfer of cultivated land and unused land in the urban construction land and unused land,the relocation of rural residential areas and the urban construction land.From the point of view of space change,the change of the land category in the central city of Jinan is the most obvious,and it directly affects the adjacent counties(districts)in the urban area,so that the types of land use are changed accordingly.The land use degree of Shang he county and Ji yang county is as high as 318.17 and 314.73 respectively,but the land use degree change rate of Ping yin county and Chang qing District,which is close to urban area,is up to 10.71% and 13.36% respectively,indicating that the land use development of the two counties is faster and more potential in the future.Although the central and Zhang qiu District of Jinan has a high degree of land use intensivism,as the main and sub central city of Jinan,the future will continue to develop rapidly.On the driving force of land use change,principal component analysis(PCA)was used to reveal the driving factors of urbanization in Jinan in the past 1990-2015 years on the SPSS19.0 platform.Selecting the typical driving factors of urbanization,and the multiple stepwise regression model was established respectively with the per capita cultivated land and the area of the built-up area,and the path analysis under the multiple stepwise regression model was carried out.The relationship between urbanization level and cultivated land resources and urban land use in different stages of development in Jinan is obtained.The results show that "economic development" and "income level" are the core driving forces affecting the change of land use in Jinan."Population factors","agricultural technology" and "space expansion" are the secondary driving forces affecting the land use change in Jinan.From the path analysis of the influence of urbanization on per capita cultivated land,GDP growth itself can have 3.958 direct positive effects on per capita cultivated land,but the negative indirect effect of GDP respectively on per capita cultivated land and-2.772 and-1.669 respectively through the per capita net income of rural areas and the total power of agricultural machinery respectively.From the path analysis of the impact of urbanization on built-up area,the increase of population urbanization rate and the increase of GDP jointly promote the expansion of built-up area.From the analysis of urbanization level and urban land use,the elasticity coefficient of urban expansion in the whole study period is more than 1.12,which shows that the expansion of the built-up area in the study period is not compatible with the development of urbanization level.The coordination degree of urbanization level and cultivated land area change in Jinan has a certain volatility and stage.The three stages of development correspond to the decline of urban expansion elasticity coefficient in the analysis of urbanization level and urban land use coordination respectively,indicating that the cultivated land and urban land are in a state of mutual restriction during the process of urbanization.Through comprehensive analysis,it is concluded that the growth of population(especially non agricultural population),rapid economic development,macro control of policy,and the improvement of scientific and technological level have influenced the evolution of the land use process in Jinan.