The Study On The Impact Of Eurasian Economic Union On The Sino-Kazakhstan Trade

Kazakhstan is an important partner for Russia and other former Soviet Union countries.In 2010,economic integration of the post-Soviet space entered into the practical development phase.Kazakhstan,Russia and Belarus established a new regional economic organization-Customs Union of three countries.In 2015,the Customs Union was transformed to Eurasian Economic Union(EEU)which has a deeper level of integration.At the same time,Kazakhstan has become the most important economic partner of China in Central Asia.Since Kazakhstan has become an independent state,Sino-Kazakh relations gained a fast and comprehensive development.At the moment,China is the biggest trade partner of Kazakhstan.Moreover,after China has proposed a new conception of regional economic development based on the idea of the ancient Silk Road,Kazakhstan's importance in China's external economic development significantly increased.As a regional economic integration,Eurasian Economic Union has a significant impact on both members and non-members of the organization and is exclusive towards non-member states.In terms of negative impact,the rise of trade barriers can produce an effect of trade diversion:the import from non-member states massively shifts to member states.Doing a research on the drivers for Kazakhstan to join EEU,the background and history of EEU's creation,it's institutional arrangement and future prospects is important for making adjustments in China-Kazakhstan economic relations and the construction of the SREB.First,introduces the background and purpose of the study,the paper structure and methodology.The second chapter the paper gathers and analyzes the existing literature of Chinese,CIS region,and Western researchers on the related topics.The third chapter analyzes the reasons behind Kazakhstan's participation in the post-soviet economic integration process,introduces the history of integration and the current state of EEU.After that,the chapter describes the influence of participation in EEU and WTO on Kazakhstan's external tariffs.The fourth chapter analyzes the current state and existing problems of Sino-Kazakh trade and the trade inside the EEU.The main problems of former include the poor trade structure and "gray"customs clearance procedures,the main problems of the later include the difficulties in the coordination of the policies and broad existence of non-tariff barriers.The first part the fifth chapter introduces the challenges and opportunities that EEEU poses to China.Opportunities include facilitation of transit movement of goods and facilitation of trade environment;the main challenge is the trade diversion effect.The paper calculates the main trade indicators in order to measure the potential of trade diversion.Indicators include:the revealed comparative advantage,the complementarity of trade,the intensity of trade,and the similarity of export structures.The results show that China and EEU partners have advantages in different industries.The complementarity between China and Russia,Belarus at Kazakhstan market is higher than competitiveness.The next part calculates the changes in China's and EEU partners'market shares at Kazakhstan market in order to quantify the impact of trade diversion.The comparison in terms of proportions allows to exclude the fluctuation in terms of value.The results show that the most of the Chinese products shares were not affected.A part of light industrial products was affected,but the degree of change is insignificant.The sixth part summarizes the results and gives several recommendations.