Research On Analysis And Forecast Of Remanufacturing Cost For Used Machinery Equipment

With the rapid development of the economy,the speed of upgrading and the number of scrapping of machinery and equipment has increased rapidly.In order to make maximum use of the hidden surplus value in used machinery equipment,the demand of machinery equipment remanufacturing has been increasing.As an important part of the remanufacturing process,the analysis and prediction of the remanufacturing cost for used machinery equipment not only provides the basis for the remanufacturers to pursue the maximization of the profits of mechanical equipment remanufacturing,but also provides relevant information and decision-making basis for the remanufacturing of mechanical equipment.The research on the analysis and prediction of the remanufacturing cost for used machinery and equipment is carried out from the perspective of the failure characteristics of key parts and components of used machinery and equipment.First of all,the status of the remanufacturing development of machinery equipment and the research status of remanufacturing costs at home and abroad are introduced,analyze the significance of the analysis and prediction of remanufacturing cost of used machinery equipment,and the problems existing in current research.Secondly,analyze the remanufacturing cost of used machinery equipment around the entire process of remanufacturing of used machinery equipment,and elaborate the cost uncertainty of the remanufacturing process of used machinery equipment;analyze the relationship between the failure characteristics of key components of used machinery equipment and the remanufacturing costs of used machinery equipment,a prediction method for remanufacturing cost of used machinery equipment based on the failure characteristics of key components was proposed,and a framework for predicting the remanufacturing cost of used mechanical equipment based on the failure characteristics of key components was constructed.Thirdly,identify key components for used machinery equipment,analyze the failure characteristics of key components,and establish a quantitative model for the failure characteristics of key components of used machinery equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;Concerning the limitations of traditional parametric prediction,the lack of remanufacturing historical data,and the uncertainty of remanufacturing process costs,combining Least Squares Support Vector Machines(LS-SVM)have excellent characteristics in dealing with data deficiencies and non-linear modeling issues,the quantified value of the key components of used machinery equipment Input,remanufacturing costs of used machinery equipment are taken as output,a prediction model of remanufacturing cost of uesd mechanical equipment based on least squares support vector machine is constructed.At the same time,a prediction model for the remanufacturing cost of used mechanical equipment based on the exponential smoothing method was constructed and the results were compared and analyzed.Finally,taking the remanufacturing of the DH220 LC used excavator by a construction machinery remanufacturing company in Hubei as an example,the simulation of the remanufacturing cost forecast model of used machinery and equipment was simulated using MATLAB,and the accuracy and effectiveness of the model were verified by examples.