A Research On Supply And Demand Relationship And Adoption Strategy Of Technological Innovation Under Uncertainty Of Terminal Market

With China's economy entering the new normal of medium-to-high-speed from a high-growth state,traditional excess capacity is disposed of slowly,supply and demand are imbalanced,the structure is dislocated,large-scale enterprise profit growth is declining year by year,and industrial transformation and upgrade are still on the way.The amount of emerging industry is not enough to support the rapid growth of the national economy.Technological innovation,especially in the field of information technology,plays a decisive role,and it will even lead to the development of an era.This thesis mainly studies the relationship between the supply function and the demand function of technological innovation and the adoption decision of technological innovation,and provides effective strategies for all parties involved in technological innovation.The main research content of this thesis is as follows:(1)This thesis studies and obtains the supply and demand function of technological innovation.It is base on the geometric Brownian movement of the product price in the end market and the production function of the adopting company using the Cobb Douglas production function.By making the income of the adopting firm optimal,the relationship between the price of intermediate products and the market price given by R&D will be obtained.In terms of R&D companies,according to the condition that that the marginal income is equal to the marginal cost,this thesis gets the demand function of the R&D enterprise.Then,this thesis uses this to get innovative adoption of the company's supply function.(2)The value of options for technology innovation adoption strategies.This thesis proposes the idea of using innovative investment strategies as a series of embedded options.Approximation of options mainly reflected in whether the first stage adopts innovation as an option.Using the nature of the options,the option values adopted in this thesis for adoption and non-adoption of decisions are more in line with the fact that actual decisions will have hidden values.Approximate decision options,optimize the adoption company's returns,and this thesis uses it to obtain the critical value for whether or not innovation is adopted.(3)Four innovative adoption strategies and probability distributions based on option models.In this thesis,numerical simulations is used to discuss the influence of different parameters on the decision-making probability of adoption,involving five parameters of four parameters: the interactive influence of price increases and price fluctuations in the terminal market,the arrival rate of innovation,price growth and the speed of innovation,and the "learning by doing".The main research findings includes: compared with the direct change in the value of innovation,innovation adoption companies are more sensitive and more complex with end-market price changes,because both the value of innovation and the end market will have an impact on the price of the terminal market.When adopting innovation,the demand for innovation value is higher,that is,the threshold is greater.When faced with fluctuations,different relative productivity companies adopt very different decisions.Specifically,the critical value of innovation value that occurs when technology adopts the four strategies of the two periods is very instructive for the actual adoption of innovation.At the same time,the influence of different parameters on the strategy also provides a theoretical reference for policy makers.