Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of The Agricultural And Forestry Listed Companies

With the sustaining development of the market economic system in our country,more and more enterprises are facing fierce competition environment and the serious financial crisis,particularly,agricultural and forestry companies face severe pressure and challenge.These companies can cope with such a crisis will determine the enterprise can survive in the fierce competition.At the same time,it will directly affect the whole country's economic development and social stability.Therefore,research of companies how to control the risks and an important part of risk:financial risk,becoming quite important.Listed companies as a representative of the agricultural and forestry enterprise,its performance directly reflects the operating condition of the enterprise,and will affect all aspects of economic development in our country.This article has concerned about this reality,in the basis of domestic and foreign research status and research methods about financial risk early.In this article,40 listed companies is selected.The model of financial warning uses relevant financial data about listed companies from CSMAR.First,this chapter mainly introduces the analysis about operating performance of these listed companies and selects a series of financial indicators of listed companies and analyzes the selected financial indicators,and finally concludes the reasons of financial risk.Then,this chapter mainly carries out empirical research,including choosing the sample of research,with the aid of SPSS to deal with the t-1 statistical data of the sample,through the method of factor to select principal component factor,uses logistic regression to establish the model of financial warning,and finally uses the newest data to predict the financial risk.At the last,this chapter mainly summarizes the research's conclusion of this paper,the research shows that:first,the logistic regression model shows that the main composition of F1-F5 and critical value P is negative correlation between financial risk,namely of the better of solvency,cash flow and development,and operation ability of listed companies,the smaller the probability of financial risk of listed companies,which is almost the same with expectations.second,based on the test results shows that when the risk of the critical value of 0.45,its detection accuracy is higher,especially the detection accuracy about companies with financial risk increases to 87.5% from 50%,and it is more suitable for financial risk early warning management of listed companies;In addition,based on the three consecutive years 2011-2013 financial data,the results show that the model of final inspection accuracy is more than 85%,and this article finally gives some suggestions about how to prevent financial risk.