Simulation Of Economy-Energy-Emission System Optimization Policy In Beijing

Beijing has made grand achievements in economic and social development in recent years.Nevertheless,the resources in Beijing are strained gravely due to the development of economy and the expansion of Beijing,besiding with the effects of COVID-19,which imped the coming prosperity of Beijing.At present,the economic development in Beijing rely on extremely resources input,and a perfect innovation-driven development mechanism has not been established.The‘G-J-J'industries are still in initial state,which is difficult to stimulate the economy in a short time.Meanwhile,excessively consuming fossil energy gives rise to the emission of CO₂ and PM_2.5,which undermines the humans health dramatically.For this point,I extended the Economy-Energy-Emission model by applying system dynamics method,to analyse the coming difficulties in the progress of Beijing,to simulate the future of Beijing in different policy scenarios,to provide reasonable and advisible theory and policy the Beijing's destination that becoming a first-class harmonious livable city.I found that,(1)under the current development trend,the speed of economic growth would slow down in the future,and‘N-G-J-J'industries will still play a dominant role in it.Moreover,the energy requirement of Beijing will increase,fails to achieve the target of 2035 in Beijing's Urban Master Plan(2016-30)(90 million tce).Besides with that,oil would instead coal to be the most required energy,which will exhaust the progress of building a cleaner energy structure.And Beijing will achieve carbon-peak in the year 2025,which fails to achieve the goal in the outline of the 14th five-year plan(2021-2025)for Beijing's economic and social development and the long-range objectives through the year 2035(peak and decline by 2025).The emission of PM_2.5 will be dcreased rapidly,while there will still have a large gap between Beijing and other first-class cities.(2)Impling a single policy cannot fix all kinds of problems in Beijing's development simultaneously.Firtsly,implementing economic policies is benificial for the development of‘G-J-J'industries in Beijing,which is helpful to reduce energy demand,while fails to modify the energy structure and to cut down GHGs emission.Carring out energy policies would effectively update the structure of energy system and lower the emission of PM_2.5,while frustrates to stimulate economic development and to reduce energy use.Implementing emission policies is helpful to the reduction of CO₂ emissions in Beijing,but weak in developing economy and updating energy system.(3)Combining of economic,energy and emissions policy is an effective way to realize the sustainable development of Beijing,which is helpful to economic development drived by‘G-J-J'industries.And it is serviceable to build a cleaner energy consumption structure and to promote the enery revolution.It is helpful for cutting down GHGs emission and achieving carbon-peak before 2025.It is benifical to reate a virtuous circle that will further boost economic growth,which is caused by a significant reduction in deaths and illnesses caused by air pollution.