Measurement And Forecast On Embodied Carbon In BRICs

Economic globalization results in international trade volume continuing to grow.Thus,environmental pollution raised increasing attention among international community.According to IPCC's study,increase on CO2 emissions is the main reason for global warming,accounting for more than 70%of greenhouse gases,thus to reduce greenhouse gas emission has become a consensus of international community.In past few years,BRICs accounted for about 20%of the world's economy,but about 40%of the world's CO2 emissions,far exceeds the world share of the economies,indicates BRICs are under great pressure to reduce CO2 emissions.The current carbon emission reduction mechanism recognized internationally was not fair to developing countries because developed countries transferred high-carbon production to developing countries and re-imported and used these products,which as a result carbon emissions was transfered to developing countries through international trade(named "embodied carbon")but they don't need to take responsibility for that part.This paper adopted BRICs' input-output data and CO2 emissions data in the latest updated version of the WIOD database.An input-output model was modified for precise calculation of BRICs' embodied carbon from 2000 to 2014,and a classical time series analysis(ARIMA)was used to forecast BRIC's embodied carbon from 2015 to 2020.This paper aims to provide some useful suggestions for BRICs to clarify CO2 emission reduction responsibility in international community and formulated some CO2 emission reduction methods for related authorities.Results showed that China is the largest embodied CO2 emissions country among BRICs,followed by Russia,India,and Brazil.Brazil,China and Russia are embodied carbon net exports,and India is net importers.From 2000 to 2014,BRICs have assumed 4,895 Mt CO2 emission reduction responsibilities for the rest of the countries'CO2 consumption,equals to an average of 326 Mt/year.Therefore,this paper showed the evidence that BRICs have sufficient motivation to argue to take less responsibility to reduce CO22 emission in the world,thus can also push developed countries to take more responsibility for their CO2 consumption,finally more fairness of international CO2 reduction mechanism should be established.