| At present,China's economy is in the period of high-speed growth,coupled with the rapid development of China's new industrialization,informatization,urbanization and agricultural modernization,the demand for natural resources continues to rise,with the attendant resource-environment-ecological problems more and more serious.With the tightening of resource constraints,deterioration of environmental conditions and degradation of ecosystems,the contradiction between regional economic development and resource environment is becoming more and more obvious.People gradually realized that to guarantee the welfare of the people's livelihood as the fairest and most beneficial--the good ecological environment,we must put the ecological civilization construction in the prominent position of social development,and the economic development patter urgently need to transform “High input,high consumption,high emission” to the coordinated and sustainable development mode of the economic-social-resource-ecological environment.As a tool to measure the coordinated development of economy,resources,environment and ecology,the core idea of eco-efficiency is to produce the largest product and service value with the least resource input and environmental consumption,which coincides with the goal of building ecological civilization,developing circular economy and realizing sustainable development of regional economy.Now,it has become an effective tool to explore the coordinated development of economic and ecological environment,realize the benefits of both economic and ecological environment,and also become the appropriate measure index for the development of circular economy and the standard to measure the development of two-type economy.And the ecological efficiency evaluation methods,research objects and evaluation indicators have been rich in research results,but there are still some deficiencies.In this paper,the water footprint and resource and environmental costs were introduced into input indexes,grey water footprint was introduced into undesirable output indexes based on water footprint theory and ecosystem service value theory.Then,the SBM model and Malmquist Productivity Index model were used to calculate the eco-efficiency,and the total Factor productivity Index and its decomposition index of eco-efficiency were analyzed by ?convergence,absolute ? convergence and conditional ? convergence,and the SDE model was adapted to analyze the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency,and we applied various spatial weightschemes to analyze the inter-provincial spatial patterns of eco-efficiency in mainland China from 2000 to 2015.Finally,the spatial Markov chain model,the grey dynamic model and the impulse response function were used to forecast the state transfer,spatial distribution pattern and TFP of the ecological efficiency in mainland China.The main research results show below:The eco-efficiency had an fluctuated downward trend during 2000~2015,the overall changed trend and changed process of eco-efficiency in four regions of China were basically consistent with the whole country.And the eco-efficiency of China demonstrated a characteristic of spatial heterogeneity,which presented a trend of “eastern region >northeastern region > central region > western region”.The eco-efficiency demonstrated a obviously distribution of zonality from east to west on the space in initial stage,and only Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangdong remained fully effective in 2015.In addition to Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong's ecological efficiency was completely effective,the remaining provinces have varying degrees of input,output redundancy.The main factors causing the loss of ecological efficiency in China are resource and environment cost investment,grey water footprint,land investment and environmental pollution.As far as the four regions are concerned,the reasons for the loss of ecological efficiency in the east and the Northeast are basically consistent,while the factors affecting the ecological efficiency in the central and western regions are consistent.On the change of time,the total factor productivity index,the pure technical efficiency index and the scale efficiency index of ecological efficiency in mainland China and four regions all showed different degrees of decline,while the technical efficiency index was on the rise.On the spatial change,the total factor productivity index of eco-efficiency in 12 provinces was on the rise,only Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong remained stable,while the rest of the provinces fell in varying degrees.The convergence analysis showed that there was only a club convergence phenomenon in the whole country,except for the northeast and western regions,the conditional ?convergence exists in the rest of the region.The influence variables indicated that in order to improve the total factor productivity index of regional eco-efficiency,the national and eastern regions need to improve the utilization ratio of R&D investment,and accelerate the regional economic development,the east and the middle should upgrade the ecological-economic transformation capacity,in addition,the central region needs to increase the R&D investment,decrease the costs of resource consumption and environmental losses per unit of GDP.There were some limitations in the spatial autocorrelation of the inter-provincialeco-efficiency by the symmetry spatial weight method based on the adjacent or distant principles.The new spatial weight scheme based on EETI-distance reciprocal fully embodied the influences of ecosystem services value and economic development level on the eco-efficiency,and it improved the reliability of the accounting results of local spatial autocorrelation.The agglomeration effect of eco-efficiency presented a decreasing trend in mainland China during 2000 to 2015,and the significant high-high,low-high agglomeration areas were respectively distributed in the eastern provinces,the central and west areas of China.The spatial distribution analysis showed that the trajectories of eco-efficiency gravity showed the trend of “northwest-southeast-northwest-southeast”,but its moving speed presented a process of “accelerating-decreasing-decreasing”.Spatial distribution rang of eco-efficiency experienced a process of“decentralized-centralized”,and the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency has changed from northeast-southwest gradually to north-south in study period.Markov state transition matrix showed that the regional eco-efficiency type has strong stability during the study period,the probability of maintaining its original type was at least20% in any consecutive year,and if the region neighborhood condition was considered,then with the regional neighborhood type ascending(descending),The probability of regional ecological efficiency level upward(downward)has certain promotion effect;The grey dynamic prediction showed that eco-efficiency gravity will move to the northeast and the spatial distribution rang of eco-efficiency will present a centralized tendency in the east-west and north-south in next 10 to 20 years.And the spillover effect of eco-efficiency is not obvious in the future.The VAR-IRF model showed that in the future the increase of total factor productivity of eco-efficiency is influenced by its own influence,while the influence of other factors is not the same,and the total factor productivity change curve formed after the whole impact is flat,which also shows that the influence of each factor is not strong. |
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