The Analysis And Prediction Of The Derailment Accident Based On Grey System And Accident Tree

Railway shunting operation is a huge system task,involving the worker,machin electric and other departments,to each department work coordination,a division problems will affect the whole system,at the same time shunting operation is of risk control points more,the great impact on the environment,could cause carelessly a bit accident.This study is in background of the X railway bureau group company,aims to find out the accidents cause by jurisdiction shunting derailment,analyze its characteristics and distribution,based on the relevant theory and method of safety assessment and prediction,evaluation of jurisdiction the safety status of shunting operation system,and according to the result of evaluation and prediction,put forward the solution of the control and prevention,car derailment accidents.The systematic research is carried out from the following aspects:(1)Summarizing the research status of the domestic external transfer vehicle operating system.This paper summarizes the current situation of domestic research from three aspects:safety management of transfer operation,equipment installation and operation personnel.(2)The prediction principle of grey system and the principle of accident tree analysis are summarized.The principle of grey system is expounded from grey generation and grey relation.The principle of accident tree analysis is expounded from two aspects: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.(3)Grey prediction model and accident tree model were established.By comparing the analysis of the characteristics of the prediction and evaluation method,the applicable situation,combined with the original data collection,selected the grey system prediction method and the accident tree method,and the core and key are expounded.A grey system prediction model and an accident tree model are established.(4)Analyze the situation of derailment accident in the district.In this paper,the derailment accident is studied from four aspects: the mechanism analysis,the influence factor analysis,the case reason analysis and the accident situation analysis.(5)Prediction of derailment accidents in the district.The grey system prediction model is applied to the jurisdiction,and the number of derailment accidents is predicted and compared with the actual number.(6)To assess the derailment accident in the district.Combined with shunting derailment accident analysis result,build the fault tree model applied to the jurisdiction,according to the evaluation results of the analysis,find out the cause of jurisdiction shunting derailment accidents,put forward the corresponding solutions.