Method Research Of Carbon Emissions Based On Environmental Governance Capacity

The phenomenon of global warming has become increasingly serious.It has caused great risks to the ecological environment of the earth and the sustainable development of humankind.Human production and consumption activities will cause large amounts of carbon dioxide emissions.As the largest developing country and the most populous country,China is experiencing increasing pressures for carbon emission reductions.China's commitment to carbon dioxide per unit of GDP by 2020 at the Copenhagen conference Emissions fell by 40% to 45% from 2005.To implement sustainable emission reduction targets,it is necessary to decompose the overall goal of carbon reduction into provinces and clarify the responsibility for carbon reduction in each province.All regions in China must assume “common but differentiated responsibilities” in reducing their carbon emissions targets.Regarding the issue of allocation of carbon emission rights,previous scholars did not consider the differences in local environmental conditions and governance levels.It is necessary to design a carbon apportionment plan that takes into account the differences in environmental governance capabilities of various regions.Based on this,this paper first elaborates the management connotation of environmental governance capacity,then uses non-radial directional distance function to build an index system to evaluate environmental governance capacity,and measures the energy conservation and emission reduction index data of environmental governance capacity in each province in China;second,consider the provincial With the differences in carbon-sharing population,economic development and environmental governance capacity,we use multi-objective planning to build output,energy conservation,emission reduction and equity models in order to predict and share the carbon emissions of each province in China in 2020;finally,based on China's carbon emissions Using clustering analysis,China is divided into three types of areas: "balanced," "resources," and "prosperous," and management advice is given for each region.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1.Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)is used to measure the environmental governance capacity of various provinces and cities in China.Except for Beijing and Ningxia,each index is 1.The frontier is efficiency.In other regions,the index is generally small.The index has the highest average value,and the central region is similar to the eastern region.Second,the multi-objective planning hierarchy analysis method is used to measure the GDP expansion ratio and energy reduction ratio expected by each province in 2020 by using output models,energy-saving models,and emission reduction models,respectively.And the carbon emission reduction ratio,and then using the equity model to complete the carbon emissions forecast for all provinces in China.The results show that China's totalcarbon emissions in 2020 was 7,494,806,600 tons,which was 1.68 times that of 2015,which was in line with China's climate conference.committed to.With the exception of Guizhou,Gansu,Qinghai and Hainan,the expected carbon emission quotas of other provinces and cities are all higher than their original levels;Third,cluster analysis is used to cluster carbon emissions across China,and “balanced”regions Including 19 provinces and cities,the “resource-type” area includes 7 provinces and districts;the “prosperous” area includes 4 provinces.