Research And Prediction Of Low Carbon Economic Development Ability In Harbin

In recent years,a series of problems such as global warming,rising sea levels,and frequent catastrophic climate have plagued the entire ecosystem.Human activities and industrial and agricultural production not only break the original carbon cycle balance of the ecosystem,but also lead to the shortage of non-renewable resources on the earth.The development of a low-carbon economy has been widely promoted as an effective way to improve the human living environment.On the basis of a large number of references,this article combines the status and characteristics of Harbin,and builds a low-carbon economic evaluation index that targets the low-carbon economic development of Harbin and uses economic development,energy consumption,social development,and environmental quality as criteria.The system framework uses the comprehensive method and analysis method to select 26 low-carbon economy elated evaluation indicators and screens 18 evaluation indicators through the gray correlation degree of each indicator and carbon intensity to construct the final low-carbon evaluation system.The weight of each index is endowed with the AHP-entropy weight combination method,and the low-carbon economic development level of Harbin is measured by calculating the comprehensive evaluation value of low carbon economy development.And based on the GM(1,1)model to predict each evaluation index,to judge the future development trend of low-carbon economy in Harbin,analyze its advantages and disadvantages,and put forward the corresponding suggestions and suggestions for development.Taking the national low-carbon economy development level as the average value and taking Xi'an as the reference value in the pilot area of low-carbon economy,the present situation and the forecast development level of low-carbon economy in Harbin are compared and analyzed.The result shows that the development level of low-carbon economy in Harbin is on the rise,rising from 0.6835 in 2011 to 0.9293 in 2016,increasing by 35.96%;rising from 0.7222 in 2017 to 0.8777 in 2022,an increase of about 21.53%.In 2011 and 2012,the development level of low-carbon economy in Harbin was higher than that of Xi'an,which was higher than that of the whole country and Xi'an in 2013-2018 years.In 2019,the comprehensive evaluation value of low-carbon economy in Harbin was lower than that of the whole country and Xi'an.Therefore,the development of low carbon economy in Harbin is at a medium level,and the future development trend is poor.According to the results of the sub-system analysis,it is concluded that the constraints of low carbon economic development in Harbin are:the third industry is not well developed,the total energy consumption is slightly higher,the population loss,the gap between urban and rural development,and theuncoordinated development of the ecological environment.Combining the current status and future development of low-carbon economy development in Harbin,the SWOT analysis of Harbin's low-carbon economic development was carried out to derive its advantages,disadvantages,opportunities,and threats.A corresponding solution was proposed for each case combination,the specific development proposals are as follows: to promote economic development in Harbin;optimize industrial structure,build green industrial system;increase investment in science and technology;adjust the structure of energy,improve energy utilization;low-carbon traffic,green travel;reduce the loss of population,narrow the gap between urban and rural areas;strengthen environmental governance,and build an ecological civilized city.