The Research On China’s Export Trade And Carbon Export Tax Under Carbon Emission Constraints

After the formal accession to the World Trade Organization,China’s foreign trade has achieved rapid and sustained development and made remarkable achievements.According to the World Trade Organization database,China’s total trade in goods and exports have been ranked first in the world by 2014,and exports accounted for 12.33% of the world’s total trade volume.With the sustained and rapid growth of China’s economy and the huge surplus of foreign trade,the energy consumption has surged,and the greenhouse gas emissions are also inevitably rising sharply.After calculation and analysis,Tsinghua University found that about 1/4 of carbon emissions from the trade surplus in China.Before the Copenhagen Conference in 2009,China announced that to 2020,carbon dioxide emissions caused by GDP will be reduced by 40%-45% than that in 2005,carbon emission reduction becomes a clear binding target for the first time.And the United States declaimed the implementation of carbon tariffs on China since 2020.Under the pressure of all aspects of carbon constraint,studying the relationship between export trade and carbon emissions and on the basic of that,putting forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to help China to achieve low-carbon export trade,has great meaning both in theory and reality.This paper focuses on the relationship between China’s export trade,carbon emissions and carbon export tax.Firstly,this paper expatiates on the related definition and theoretical basis which is involved in this paper,then based on the introduction of the state of export trade and carbon emissions,it uses the econometric time series model to do an empirical research of the correlation between total carbon emissions and export trade in China,the result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between both of them and the export trade is a unidirectional Granger reason for carbon emissions.This paper uses the input-output model to estimate the carbon emissions from the export trade of sub-industries,and analyzes the direct carbon emissions coefficient,complete carbon emissions coefficient and the export trade and embodied carton emissions in export of different industries.On the basis of the feasibility analysis of the carbon export tax,taking the export tariff as an example,the paper analyzes the different trade effects of the carbon export tax on the big country and the small country.We choose 12 kinds of products with the highest embodied carbon emissions;establish the export demand price estimation model and quantitative change model to simulate the impact of carbon export tax with different tax rates on its export demand.Finally,according to the above analysis,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for China to promote the development of low-carbon export trade under the background of carbon emission constraints.