Current Utilization And Prospect Of Natural Gas In China

As a kind of clean and low carbon energy,large-scale popularization and utilization are the most realistic and effective means for natural gas to improve atmospheric environment recently.Now the pressure of disposing pollution and ensuring the security of energy supply is doubled increase in China,the consumption of natural gas gradually rises and governments are active to propel exploration and utilization of natural gas,so it is of great significance to study industrial prospect of China's natural gas.The main content of this paper is to predict the consumption level of China's natural gas during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.The paper introduces the development of natural gas in China and other typical countries that the industry is mature,includes the relationship between supply and demand,consumption structure,market system,development model,infrastructure and other aspects,and it is pointed out that there are a series of problems such as insufficient supply of resources,lagging infrastructure,insufficient market regulation,imperfect price system in China's natural gas industry.Based historically statistical data of China's natural gas consumption,a linear regression and gray prediction models are respectively used to forecast China's natural gas consumption during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,a linear regression and gray prediction are two basic models,the predictive accuracy of the model is 94.95% and 91.6%.The gross domestic product and residents' consumption level are independent variables,natural gas consumption is dependent variable,Eviews software is used to establish multiple regression model,the predictive accuracy of the model is 99%.Although the predicted results are different obtained from above models,the overall trend is same,the future demand of natural gas will be increase in China,the consumption in 2020 will be 1.4 to 2.3 times in 2015.The paper analyzes the terminal consumption characteristics of China's natural gas,the field of terminal consumption mainly divides into urban gas,chemical industry,industrial gas and power generation,then compares and analyzes economy between natural gas and other energy in different fields,so we can get the profitability and development prospects of natural gas.The paper put forward corresponding countermeasures in order to provide the future development direction of the natural gas industry,the countermeasures include that government and enterprise can increase scientific and technological research and financial support witch can improve the ability of resource supply,pay attention to the leading role of market witch can drive the natural gas industry to move forward,strengthen infrastructure construction to ensure the normal supply capacity,vigorously promote natural gas as a fuel for power generation,gradually improve the natural gas price mechanism and the government should play the function of adjustment and supervision.