Analysis On The Impact Of The Upgrading Of Manufacturing Structure On China's CO₂ Emissions

China currently is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide(CO2)in the world.With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,energy consumption and carbon emissions are still increasing.Faced with the dual pressures of developing the economy steadily and coping with climate change,China is actively seeking ways to transform its economic structure so as to reduce carbon emissions.The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry plays a very important role in the process of economic transformation.Then,our country launched "Made in China 2025",clearly put forward the requirements for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and pushed the manufacturing industry to become stronger.Therefore,how to upgrade the manufacturing structure to realize a low-carbon economy has been the concerned topic in government and academic researches.Domestic and foreign experts have done a lot of researches on the relationship between industrial structure and CO2 emissions,the driven factors of CO2 emissions in manufacturing industry and quantitative analysis on CO2 emissions abatement by upgrade industrial structure.However,the existing studies mainly focus on the second industrial structure.The researches on the industry's internal structure are not totally enough.Therefore,we took the manufacturing industry as the research object and divided the manufacturing industry into high-tech,medium-tech and low-tech manufacturing industry based on R&D intensity.The upgrading of manufacturing structure refers to the development of low-technology and low-value added manufacturing industry to high-technology and high-value added manufacturing industry under the impetus of technological progress.This paper is different from existing literature in the following two points:first,we concentrated on the manufacturing structure,and studied the influence of manufacturing structure on carbon emissions at a subdivision level of industrial structure.Second,we investigated the effects of the upgrading of manufacturing structure on CO2 emissions not only from national perspective,but also from regional perspective.In this paper,we first selected population density,GDP per capita,technological progress,trade openness,urbanization,energy intensity and manufacturing structure as the driving factors of CO2 emissions to construct the model.Then,we calculated the total CO2 emissions based on the accounting method IPCC provided and the classification standard in China Energy Statistical Yearbook.Concerning regional differences in China.This paper divided the whole nation into the eastern,the central and the western economic regions and investigated the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing structure on CO2 emissions at the national and regional levels.At last,this paper offered reasonable and effective policy proposal based on regional economic difference and different resource allocation,to build a green,low-carbon and circular manufacturing system.The results show that the upgrading of manufacturing structure contributes to reducing China's CO2 emissions and the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing structure on CO2 emissions in the eastern region is greater than that in the central region and the western region.The interaction between manufacturing structure and technological progress has inhibited China's overall carbon emissions.Besides,per capita GDP and carbon emissions have different relations in different stages of economic development.The findings not only contribute to advancing the existing literature,but also deserve special attention from policymakers.In order to control carbon emissions,it is suggested to promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure.Moreover,optimize the regional distribution of manufacturing industries.