Research On Indirect Economic Loss And Industrial Connection Effect Of Haze Pollution

The rapid development of economy in China will bring some problems,one of which is haze pollution.Haze pollution,the disaster for the beautiful scenery and the heart and pulmonary function,poses a great threat to national security and social stability.Therefore,it is significant for improving air quality and making our skies blue again to carry out a research on economic loss and industrial connection effect of haze pollution based on the current situation of haze pollution.The main work and conclusions are as follows:The first chapter introduced the background and significance of haze pollution.Then we carried on the commentary to the domestic and foreign related literature.Finally,the main contents,technical routes and innovation points were put forward.In the second chapter,we did descriptive statistics analysis on the overall and regional state of haze pollution in China based on the historical data of air quality.The results showed that,the haze pollution in China showed regional and seasonal characteristics.Overall,the air quality in southwest China was pretty well,while that in north China and northwest China was worse.The haze pollution in winter and spring was heavier than that in summer and autumn.The air quality of different provinces in the same area may differ greatly.In the third chapter,the grey Markov prediction model was modified by genetic algorithm,and then the forecasting results were compared with GM(1,1)and traditional grey Markov model.An empirical analysis of PM2.5 concentration was conducted by taking Beijing City as an example.According to the results,the grey Markov prediction model,optimized by genetic algorithm offers a better performance compared with GM(1,1)and traditional grey Markov model,relying on the full use of original data and the advantages of genetic algorithm,which proves its validity in concentration forecasting of air pollutants.According to the predicted results,the concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing will decrease in the coming years.In the forth chapter,we selected related health outcomes and used exposure-response functions to evaluate the health effects of PM2.5 pollution from a health perspective.Dynamic computable general equilibrium model was developed to simulate the long-term health economic loss of exogenous shocks,that is,the labor force losses and the medical expenses.An empirical analysis was conducted for the Beijing City,and according to the results,PM2.5 pollution causes serious damage to human health during 2013-2020 in Beijing,including 156588(95%CI:43335-248914)premature deaths and 6397553(95%CI:3056828-9381570)cases of related diseases.The changes of labor force and medical expense will further affect the output of sectors.The output of 'Health services' increases,while other sectors appear different degree of output reduction,among which,the losses of 'Industry' and 'Other services' are relatively serious.In addition,the corresponding accumulated loss of regional GDP is estimated to be 3062.63(95%CI:1168.77-4671.13)million RMB.In the fifth chapter,based on quarterly data of PM2.5 concentration and industrial output during 2010-2017,the impulse response function and the variance decomposition methods were used and the vector autoregression model was developed to analyze the two-way function mechanism of PM2.5 pollution and industry development from an industry perspective,taking Beijing City as an example to make an empirical analysis.According to the results,there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between PM2.5 pollution and three industries development in Beijing.Three industries are one-way Granger causes of PM2.5 pollution.Three industries development has various influences on PM2.5 pollution,which lasts for 1-2 years.The development of primary and second industries promotes PM2.5 emissions,while that of third industry shows a inhibition action.Additionally,PM2.5 pollution shows a certain inhibition on primary and second industries development,but no obvious inhibitory effects on third industry development.The third industry development affects PM2.5 pollution most,the second industry development does less,and the primary industry development does the least.In the sixth chapter,we put forward the policy recommendations on haze pollution prevention according to the findings of the full text,and proposed research prospects for the next step according to the inadequacy of the existence.