Equilibrious And Optimized Management Of Urban Eco-environmental And Economic System Under Complex Conditions

In recent years,with the acceleration of urbanization,rapid economic development and rapid population expansion,the material metabolism within the city and the exchange of resources among cities show an imbalance state.The problem of"disease" in modern cities has gradually attracted attention.How to analyze the complex characteristics of multi-process,multi-factor and multi-uncertainty of urban system management,quantify the interactions of each process and factor,characterize the impact of multi-dimensional risk on urban systems of different scales,consider the restrictive relationship among society,economy and environment have become the key to restrict the effectiveness of urban system management scheme,which is also an urgent problem to be solved by managers.In view of the above problems,it is urgent to identify the complexity of the urban system and optimize management and development.Therefore,the research goal of this study is to address the urban ecological environment issues of typical Chinese cities and multi-regional urban agglomerations.Considering the restrictive relationships among energy,environment,economy,water resources and climate,the whole chain,practical and effective "data collection-status,assessment-risk,identification-responsibility,prediction-management,decision-making" system evaluation and urban comprehensive management method system are provided.In the aspect of multi-factor complexity identification of urban metabolic system:1)Considering the dynamic analysis of energy metabolism system in Guangdong Province with different energy use forms(primary energy and secondary energy),the problems and solutions of urban energy metabolism in Guangdong are explored;2)Through retrospective decomposition(1997-2017)and forward-looking forecasts(2035),the changes in energy metabolism are reviewed and the the risks of the future development of the energy system in Guangdong from the supply,production and consumption sides are forecasted;3)The impacts of water resources projects on the water use changes of various sectors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are identified to providea social and economic foundation for the development of water resources projects;4)The top-down network analysis method is used to make forward-looking suggestions on the management of three wastes in China,so as to realize the integrated and optimized management of waste water,waste gas and solid waste;5)Facing the challenge of climate change,formulate specific carbon emission inventories at the industrial level in China from different perspectives(supply,production,consumption).In the aspect of multi-regional urban metabolism simulation and environmental responsibility division:1)Re-clustering between regions according to the development level of different regions in China to identify environmental inequality in regional trade;2)Taking China Southern Power Grid as an example,simulate the specific distribution of carbon emission reduction responsibilities transferred by large-scale power transportation;3)Cross-regional carbon emission transfers embodied in power transmission is simulated under the intervention of the national power substitution policy;4)Quantify the cross-regional virtual water transfer embodied in food to realize the integrated management of physical water and virtual water in China;5)onsider the complex relationship among energy,water and air pollutants in China under changing climate conditions,and explore the coordinated governance of them.In the aspect of multi-scale urban system integration management:1)explore the impact of the implementation of the stepped carbon tax policy in Guangdong Province on the social,economic and environmental benefits of Guangdong itself and other provinces in China;2)analyze the interactive effect of China's carbon policy(hierarchical carbon tax policy)and social and economic policies on the system;3)Exlpore the future China's energy system management scheme under the background of the trade war.Summarily,this research introduces the concept of urban metabolism,and integrates input-output analysis,ecological network analysis,multivariate statistical analysis,computable general equilibrium model and energy system optimization model to develop an urban system management model covering three scales of city,multi-region and country.The problems of environmental protection,economic development,climate change and water resources utilization faced by urban system management are discussed,and the clean,low-carbon and sustainable production modes of different scale urban systems are proposed.It is expected that the results can provide effective decision-making basis for industrial structure adjustment and related policy-making.