| Climate change has a profound impact on human survival and development.It is a major challenge facing all countries in the world.It is a major strategy for China's economic and social development to actively cope with climate change and promote low carbon development.It is also a major opportunity to accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode and the adjustment of the economic structure.The study of regional carbon emission reduction is conducive to the sustainable development of regional economy,and provides a theoretical basis for mitigating climate change.This paper mainly used the data of Yunnan statistical yearbook,Yunnan energy statistics yearbook and the carbon emission calculation formula published by the United Nations Intergovernmental Special Committee on climate change(2006),and the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission was analyzed in Yunnan province during 2005-2015 years.Based on the Kaya identity,the factor decomposition model of energy consumption carbon emission in Yunnan province was establelished by using the logarithmic mean decomposition method.The impact of the population size,economic scale,energy utilization efficiency and energy carbon emissions per unit energy on the total carbon emissions in Yunnan province was analyzed.Then taking the KAYA model as the core,based on the current situation of carbon emission in Yunnan Province,the "13th Five-Year" plan and the medium and long term planning,the present situation of carbon dioxide emission in Yunnan province was predicted and the peak value and peak value of the carbon dioxide emission in Yunnan province were analyzed and determined.Finally,some suggestions were put forward in view of the results of the analysis.The results show that:(1)The trend of the total energy consumption in Yunnan province was increasing during 2005-2015,from 60 million 239 thousand and 700 tons of standard coal in 2005 to 103 million 565 thousand and 600 tons of coal in2015.The energy consumption intensity of Yunnan province was greatly reduced in ten years,from 17 thousand and 400 tons of standard coal / million yuan in 2005 to0.755 tons of standard coal / 10000 yuan in 2015.Yunnan's energy consumptionstructure was still dominated by fossil energy consumption,of which coal consumption is the highest.(2)The total carbon emissions in Yunnan were on the rise during 2005-2015 years.The intensity of energy carbon emission was also declining in Yunnan province,from 1.994 tons of coal / ton in 2005 to 1.416 tons per 10000 yuan in 2015,and the overall decline was 65.44%.In 2015,the industrial sector had the highest carbon emissions,up to 127 million 285 thousand and 700 tons,followed by the energy sector and the transport sector,with low carbon emissions from agriculture,service and living sectors.Among them,industry,energy and transportation were the key sectors of carbon dioxide emissions.(3)The peak value of carbon emissions in Yunnan is 2030,and the peak emission was about 213 million787 thousand and 400 tons.(4)The main factors that affected carbon emissions in Yunnan province were population,per capita GDP,energy efficiency and unit energy carbon emissions.The total population and per capita GDP were positive driving factors,while energy efficiency and unit energy carbon emissions were negative driving factors.Finally,according to the current situation and forecast results of carbon emission in Yunnan,some measures were put forward,such as improving the electrification rate,developing and utilizing the renewable energy... |
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