Research On Industrial Economic Effects,Carbon Abatement Effects And Influencing Mechanism In China's ETS

The rapid development of industrialization has brought massive emissions in China,which has resulted in haze and influenced seriously the economic development and people's living quality.China has launched successively ETS(Emissions Trading Scheme)pilots aimed at industrial sub-industries in seven regions in 2013 and 2014.However,the economic effects and carbon reduction effects of sub-industries under ETS have been not clear.Based on the panel data of 38 sub-industries from 2006-2015,this paper used non-parametric optimization model,DID and PSM-DID to investigate industrial potential effects and actual effects under ETS,and explore the impact mechanism of different effects.The results showed that,firstly,under ideal production technology,the ETS can produce significant potential economic and carbon-abatement effects.Secondarily,under real production technology,the ETS has no remarkable actual economic effects and has negative impacts on carbon reduction.Thirdly,the influencing mechanism that the potential effects differ from the actual effects is the ETS doesn't promote industrial TFP(Total Factor Productivity)and TFE(Total Factor energy efficiency)effectively,and even decreases TFE.Forthly,the low intensity of R&D,low efficiency of resources allocation and fossil-fuel energy consumption structure have negative impacts on promotion of the industrial TFP and TFE.Based on above conclusions,this paper gave some suggestions,such as increasing the intensity of R&D,improving efficiency of resources allocation,introducing and developing energy-saving technology,establishing supervisory disclosure system,and advocating using new energy and clean energy.