A Study On The Impact Of Foreign Trade On Carbon Emissions In Tianjin

Since joining the World Trade Organization,China's foreign trade has developed rapidly and has become the world's largest exporter.However,as a manufacturing power,China's economy and trade have largely maintained an extensive growth model,and energy consumption and environmental pollution are facing a serious situation.As a coastal city with a superior geographical position,Tianjin is one of the major port cities in China,but its trade structure is still dominated by high-carbon emissions and low value-added industrial products.With the rapid development of economy and trade,Tianjin's carbon dioxide emissions are also high,and economic and trade development has paid a huge environmental cost.Therefore,it is critical to coordinate the relationship between trade development and environmental protection.Different from other studies on the relationship between trade openness and carbon emissions in one or more countries,this paper narrows down the scope of research and conducts an empirical analysis of Tianjin from a micro perspective.By studying the impact of the development of Tianjin's foreign trade on carbon dioxide emissions,we can provide realistic guidance for Tianjin's export trade and low-carbon sustainable and coordinated development,and also provide theoretical references and inspiration for low-carbon trade in other cities in China,especially coastal open cities.The study of this paper is based on the theory of foreign trade development and carbon dioxide emissions.First,the paper reflects the scale and structure of Tianjin's foreign trade through mathematical statistics and charts.It can be found that Tianjin's overall trade development is good,but its development rate has slowed down in recent years.Export trade products are mainly manufactured products,and direct use of foreign investment is mainly concentrated in manufacturing.In the trade mode,the proportion of processing trade accounts for about half.Next,the carbon dioxide emissions of Tianjin is calculated using the fossil energy combustion method raised by IPCC,and the carbon dioxide emission intensity and emission structure are further measured.The results show that Tianjin's carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing year by year before 2014,and emissions have started to decrease year by year after 2014.Carbon dioxide emissions from the secondary industry account for more than 60%of the city's total emissions.A large amount of carbon dioxide emissions are mainly derived from the burning of fossil energy like coal.Comparing the trade volume of Tianjin with the carbon dioxide emissions,we can find that the trends of the two are similar.It can be initially judged that the development of trade has a certain correlation with carbon dioxide emissions.Next,based on the scale effect,structural effect and technical effect theory of trade,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of foreign trade on Tianjin's carbon dioxide emissions based on Tianjin's trade development status and carbon emission status.In the empirical part,using Tianjin's time series data,the least squares and two-stage least squares regression are performed with the carbon dioxide emissions as the explanatory variables and the economic scale,industrial structure and technical level as explanatory variables.The scale effect,structural effect and technical effect of trade impacts on CO₂ emissions and their overall impact were measured.The results show that Tianjin's foreign trade and carbon dioxide emissions have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship.The scale effect and structural effect of trade are positive,the technical effect is negative,and the sum of the three effects is positive.This explains that the expansion of trade and the trade structure dominated by the secondary industry will promote the increase of carbon dioxide emissions,and the use of technology helps reduce carbon dioxide emissions.In general,foreign trade will exacerbate Tianjin's carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,based on the previous theoretical and empirical analysis and combined with the latest development strategy of China,this paper proposes the following countermeasures for the shortcomings of Tianjin trade and low carbon development.First,optimize the structure of foreign trade,encourage the export of high value-added and low-carbon emissions products,and focus on developing emerging fields of service trade.Second,accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading,build an ecological industrial structure,gradually realize low-carbon production in the secondary industry,and promote the development of high-end manufacturing and production services.Third,adjust energy consumption structure and reduce the use of coal-based fossil energy.Actively develop renewable energy and non-fossil energy,and improve energy efficiency.Forth,strengthen independent research and development and introduction of low-carbon technologies,and actively carry out international low-carbon cooperation projects.Finally,improve the construction of carbon emission trading market,strengthen the construction of carbon financial system,and rationally formulate carbon emission quota system.Improve the carbon trading market supervision system and strengthen carbon trading and project cooperation with other provinces and other developed countries.