| Numerous studies have shown that the use of excess carbon-containing energy will accelerate the global warming effect.As a major emission sector,the shipping industry has been outside the scope of international climate negotiations.At present,IMO has determined the ship technology and operational emission reduction measures,and Market-based Measures(MBMs)are still in the negotiation stage.Among the MBMs,the Maritime Emission Trading Scheme(METS)has been debated by its reduction effectiveness and political position.Domestically,the Shanghai carbon market already includes shipping industry and has clearly defined the allowance allocation method.Foreign METS impact research mostly focuses on the framework construction and legal,and has little research on the impact of industry economy and carbon reduction.While domestic research is mainly based on legal criticism,and has not started research on the economy and carbon reduction.Therefore,the economic and carbon reduction impacts on China’s international shipping industry into the carbon trading market is basically in a blank stage.This paper systematically summarizes the research progress of METS at home and abroad.On this basis,an intuitive METS impact model based on system dynamics is constructed to simulate the future economic development of China’s international shipping industry.This study takes China’s international shipping,industry into the Shanghai carbon market as an example,and combines the requirements of the shipping industry in the 13th Five-Year Plan to conduct a policy simulation evaluation of the international shipping industry into the carbon market in the future 2018-2030.The simulation results show that it is feasible for the shipping industry to be included in the Shanghai carbon market.In this case,when the free allowance of the shipping industry is higher than 97%,the overall industry will not be affected.With a surplus of carbon allowances,it is possible to obtain emission reduction profits,which are mainly caused by the improvement of technical management in the industry.When the free quota is lower than 97%,the annual allowance will be short.The emission reduction comes from the direct emission reduction of technology management and the impact of the carbon market.The amount of invisible emission reductions caused by the decline in traffic volume,in which the amount of intangible emission reductions caused by the carbon market is less than that of technical management.The actual energy consumption improvement rate of China’s international shipping industry is over 1.4%of the 13th Five-Year Plan,and the best rate is about 6%-7%.Therefore,in terms of the current level of energy consumption decline,if the free allowance and carbon price are set properly,there is no problem in the overall international shipping industry to be included in the Shanghai carbon market.Secondly,based on the results of industry SWOT analysis,this paper proposes countermeasures:1)national level,building a national interest community alliance,preparing the shipping industry for inclusion in the national carbon market,improving the technical level of the ship building industry and vigorously promoting new energy;2)Industry level.improving the technical management level of shipping enterprises,eliminating old and high-energy ships,actively adopting the ship energy efficiency management plan with EEOI as the core,actively participating in the carbon market and innovating the enterprises’operation mode.The study demonstrates the feasibility of China’s international shipping industry to be included in the current Shanghai carbon market.Combined with the SWOT comprehensive analysis of the shipping industry’s internal and external environment,whether it can be integrated into the future national carbon market still needs comprehensive consideration.This research can provide certain reference for China’s shipping authorities and shipping companies. |
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