Impact Of Oil Price Fluctuation On Global Macroeconomics

Predicting the global economic and political trends through dynamic simulation analysis of economics is an important task in the economic geography analysis of the Human geography.On May 8,2018,the United States announced a unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement and sanctions against Iran,including banning Iranian oil exports and demanding that other countries stop oil trade with Iran.The United States will also sanction against the countries that continue to trade oil with Iran.The ultimate goal is to zero Iranian oil exports.This political event will not only affect the international oil market,but also impact the macroeconomics of various countries or regions around the world.It is a complex economic geography work involving a large amount of actual data.Therefore,this paper builds up a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and analyzes the important realistic problem in the computational geography methods.Models and computing systems set out two scenarios: the first is a baseline scenario in which all countries or regions of the world develop in line with the development trend prior to policy shocks.The second is a US sanctions policy scenario in which Iran oil exports are assumed to be zero in the context of the United States sanctions policy.By comparing the two policy scenarios,this paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of Iran total cessation of oil exports on the global economy and its possible geopolitical economic impact.The article selects seven major economies including the United States,the European Union,China,Japan,Russia,India,and Iran.The research focuses on the development of GDP,energy consumption and import,import and export and industrial sectors in these seven countries(regions),and on this basis to provide the necessary policy recommendations to ensure our energy security and steady economic growth.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.(1)Under the standard scenario,China's total GDP will surpass the United States and the European Union in 2033,becoming the world's largest economy.The GDP growth of developing countries is generally higher than that of developed countries.Among them,India will become the country with the fastest GDP growth,and Japan will become the country with the slowest GDP growth;(2)The US sanctions policy has had a negative impact on the overall economic development of the world.Among them,the impact of the US sanctions policy is short-term beneficial to the US GDP growth but long-term disadvantage,which has a serious impact on Iran's GDP growth;This policy has different degrees of negative impact on the economic growth of the EU,China,Japan,and India,which has a positive impact on Russia's GDP,but it will also bring about a more single change in the economic structure of Russia;(3)The US sanctions policy has reduced the energy consumption of petroleum and kerosene products in six countries or regions other than Iran to varying degrees,and the rate of decline has increased year by year.As an alternative energy source,they all have increased the number of natural gas and other Consumption of energy.policy shocks have increased Iran's consumption of oil,coal,kerosene products and electricity,but reduced the consumption of natural gas.Among them,under the policy shock,with the slowdown of the overall economic situation of the EU and Japan,their total consumption of various types of energy has also declined;(4)The impact of the US sanctions policy has caused seven countries or regions to reduce their imports of oil and kerosene products.Among them,the United States has also increased its production and exports of oil,and Iran has almost stopped importing oil.It has also significantly reduced imports of other sources of energy,which will force industrial restructuring in countries such as China,India and Japan to be changed;(5)The impact of the US sanctions policy can change the industrial structure of countries.The crude oil industry in the six regions of the United States,the European Union,China,Russia,Japan and India has suffered the biggest positive impact.Their crude oil output has increased to varying degrees and has accelerated year by year.At the same time,the policy impact also has a negative impact on some industries in these countries or regions.Among them,the primary industry and the high energy consumption industry in the secondary industry have a greater negative impact,while the tertiary industry has a smaller negative impact.The policy shock almost destroyed Iranundefineds economic development,with most of its industrial output falling sharply,especially in its crude oil industry;(6)The impact of the US sanctions policy is beneficial to Russian foreign trade and has little impact on the American foreign trade.It has had a negative impact on the foreign trade of the European Union,China,Japan and India,and has also caused a serious blow to the import and export trade of Iran.The article completely explores a geography-based global economic development and economic geography structure simulation framework,and the scientific conclusions it has obtained help China to cope with the changing international economic situation.It is true that due to the changes in the international situation and the uncertainty of the US government,the conclusions reached in this paper may have certain uncertainties.However,as a quantitative analysis framework for international economic geography research,the trend of the world economic geography has been completed.