Research On The Influence Of Coal Price On Economic Development Based On Dynamic Perspective

Coal is an important energy and chemical raw material in China,which plays a fundamental and supporting role in China's national economy and plays an extremely important role in the national energy development strategy.Due to the influence of market allocation mechanism,the fluctuation of coal price is very significant,and the instability of coal price not only affects the business performance and investment decisions of enterprises,but also has a profound impact on the coal industry and even the economic development.Therefore,the research on the mechanism of the impact of coal price fluctuation on economic development is the basis for the state,coal industry and enterprises to formulate corresponding measures and prevent risks in response to price fluctuation and economic environment change.This paper first defines the coal price and its characteristics,coal price index,economic cycle and other related theories,and further explores the specific factors affecting coal price fluctuations,including policy factors,supply side factors,demand side factors and other factors(safety risks and environmental pressure).On this basis,the influence of coal price fluctuation on economic development is analyzed.Taking the data from 1997.1 to 2020.8,this paper analyzes the fluctuation trend of coal price by using HP filter method.It is believed that the coal price has obvious seasonal fluctuation and periodicity trend.Secondly,Granger causality test,vector autoregressive model and impulse response function are used to test the influence of coal price on economic development.The results show that the fluctuation of coal price has a positive impact on GDP.Then,the time-varying efficiency is measured using a time-varying parametric state space model.It show that there is a matching and hysteretic property between the influence of coal price on GDP and the fluctuation of coal price.In addition,it is concluded that the coal price is not symmetrical with its time-varying elasticity to GDP.According to the research,combined with the national development strategy and the development trend of the coal industry,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)actively promote the effective combination of market economy and government intervention,utilize the coal import and export policy,the futures market and the coal inventory mechanism to moderately adjust the coal price;(2)Establish a price early warning mechanism at the national level to provide a foundation for enterprises to establish a risk prevention system;(3)Establish and improve the financial risk control mechanism of enterprises,strengthen the overall management of funds,and establish the price risk reserve system;(4)Enhance industry self-discipline,effectively control production scale,and enhance the matching degree between supply and demand.