The Optimization Of Inland Shipping Enterprises' Safety Investment Based On D-S Evidence Theory

"The Yangtze River Economic Belt","The Belt and Road"policy,has brought new opportunities and challenges to the development of shipping industry,at the same time,with the increase of China's economic strength and global influence,the national policy has increased the importance of shipping safety,efficiency and environmental protection.In this context,the shipping enterprises have to increase their safety investment to ensure the navigation safety.Large scale security input has caused great pressure to the operation of shipping enterprises.Under the new policy environment,how to reasonably ensure the safety investment of shipping enterprises and improve the safety input efficiency of shipping enterprises is a key problem faced by shipping companies.Therefore,this paper has carried out a comprehensive study of navigation safety and safety investment,mainly including:1)Based on the theory of crew,ship,environment and management system engineering,analyzed the influencing factors of inland navigation safety,and determined the safety evaluation index system of inland navigation.Through expert investigation,quantified and graded the index system.Introduced D-S evidence theory which is more suitable for multi-source information fusion to determine the comprehensive safety probability of inland navigation.The safety probability of the crew,ship,environment and management is derived by the evidence fusion of evidence theory.2)Defined the concept and scope of the navigation safety investment,analyzed of the main elements of safety investment in shipping enterprises in our country and its present situation;objectively expounded the necessity of optimization of navigation safety investment;laid the foundation for the navigation safety investment and safety investment optimization model of quantitative classification.3)Quantified the crew,ship,management and evidence node,determined the quantitative classification of evidence nodes of safety investment;based on D-S evidence theory of inland navigation safety evaluation model,determined the relationship between safety investment and safety comprehensive inland navigation probability mapping;combined with the inland navigation safety comprehensive probability,defined the the safety investment benefit of shipping enterprises;put the comprehensive safety probability of inland navigation and the safety investment of shipping enterprises as constraints,put the maximum safety investment of shipping enterprises as the objective function,built the optimization model of inland shipping enterprise's safety investment.4)In view of the 27 dimensional complex functions built by the inland shipping enterprise's safety investment optimization model,referred to the idea of genetic algorithm,and wrote the optimization solution program in MATLAB to find the optimal solution of the model.In the process of solving,in the face of 4~277 sample space,the program written by myself showed high convergence speed and strong global search ability,and obtained a reasonable and accurate result.The empirical analysis showed that the inland navigation safety assessment of the D-S evidence theory model can make the evidence nodes get rid of dependence on the prior probability,can truly reflect the status of inland navigation safety;inland shipping enterprise safety investment optimization model can significantly improve the inland navigation safety state,improve the efficiency of safety investment of shipping enterprise;the program written by myself has fast convergence and the ability to find the global optimal solution.