Study On Dynamic Change And Driving Factors Of Carbon Footprint In Xi’an City

Climate change characterized by global warming has become one of the hot issues of concern to the international community.In 2011,China proposed in the White Paper on China’s Policies and Actions on Climate Change that by 2020,greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 40%-45%compared with 2005,and the degree of emission reduction will even exceed that of developed countries in Europe and America.The low-carbon development of megacities is the basis for China to achieve the goal of controlling greenhouse gas emissions,and it has important practical significance for the decomposition and implementation of emission reduction responsibilities.Xi’an is the only mega city in western China.In recent years,under the guidance of the major development strategy of "Great Xi’an Construction",the scale of population,economy and society will expand rapidly,and energy and environmental issues will cause widespread concern in society.Exploring the green low-carbon development road has become a prerequisite that must be considered in the process of urbanization development in Xi’an.How to objectively grasp the changes in the demand for resources and environment,coordinate the relationship between economic growth and resource and environmental carrying capacity,lay the foundation for the construction of ecological function guarantee baseline,environmental quality safety bottom line,and natural resource utilization,and guide Xi’an to form a low-carbon development mode and life.The way is the problem that Xi’an needs to focus on.At this time,by correctly evaluating the ecological pressures caused by human activities on the urban climate,the carbon capacity that the city can provide,and the factors driving the growth of the city’s carbon footprint,not only can the urban pattern be optimized,the quality of the city can be improved,and a new district will be built.The low-carbon development path of old district reconstruction,industrial adjustment,population concentration and ecological construction will form a replicable and scalable experience,and it can also provide a scientific basis for improving the development and ecological relationship between other cities in the west of China.Taking the 2006-2015 Xi’an Statistical Yearbook as the data source,using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and China’s"Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gases",the carbon footprint and carbon carrying capacity of Xi’an were measured.The net carbon footprint and net carbon footprint pressure index,and using the Tapio decoupling principle to analyze the dynamic relationship between urban carbon footprint and economic growth,and to explore the factors driving the change of carbon footprint by partial least squares method.The results show that(1)Xi’an carbon footprint increased from 23.34 million t CO2eq in 2007 to 32.25 million t CO2eq in 2016,with an average annual growth rate of 4.01%.The increase in energy consumption is the main reason for the increase in urban carbon footprint.Carbon carrying capacity decreased from 7.78 million t CO2eq to 7.45 million t CO2eq,with an average annual decline of 0.47%.The net carbon footprint pressure index fluctuated between[-2.57%,17.09%],indicating that the city has been in the ecological stress relief zone and the mild enhancement zone.(2)The total carbon footprint of the city and the carbon footprint of each account have the characteristics of“connecting-decoupling-re-hook-re-decoupling" with economic growth.(3)The most important positive factor driving the growth of carbon footprint is the per capita residential building area,while the urbanization rate has a restraining effect.(4)Proposing for the development and strict implementation of energy-saving building laws and regulations,improving carbon sink capacity,controlling high energy consumption in the mega-cities in western China,promoting clean energy,improving residents1 energy consumption structure,and establishing a "multi-regulation" space.Policy recommendations such as planning systems and operational mechanisms.