Spatio-temporal Evolution And Simulation Study Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In China's Construction Industry

The research report of IPCC points out that human's social and economic activities are the important factors that lead to global warming.Modern social and economic development is carried out on the basis of energy consumption technology.As the mainstay of China's economic development,the construction industry's energy consumption is even more so.The continuous development of social economy and the rapid promotion of urbanization have accelerated the rapid development of the construction industry.The continuous development of the construction industry is accompanied by a large amount of energy consumption and environmental pollution.Therefore,there is a great contradiction between the development of the construction industry and the protection of the ecological environment.In order to solve the carbon emission problem of the construction industry from the perspective of "curing the root cause",the characteristics of carbon emission of China's construction industry and the role of influencing factors need to be deeply analyzed,so as to alleviate the pressure of China's construction carbon emission.Therefore,from the perspective of energy consumption,this paper makes an overall analysis of the change characteristics of carbon emissions of China's construction industry,then comprehensively and deeply explores the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China's construction industry,so as to find an appropriate carbon emission reduction path for China's construction industry.Firstly,the carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the total carbon emission of China's construction industry.The main sources of carbon emissions in China's construction industry are electricity and fossil energy.Using the causality test,it is concluded that the output value of China's construction industry has a one-way causal relationship with the carbon emissions of China's construction industry,and the carbon emissions of the construction industry will continue to rely on the development of the industry economy.Secondly,according to the construction industry output value and China's construction industry,the relationship between carbon emissions from the perspective of industry economic development,to extend the Kaya identities to find the main factors influencing construction of carbon emissions in China,based on the extended STIRPAT model of every influence factor for building carbon emissions influence from big to small,followed by the level of urbanization,construction industry,the strength of energy consumption,GDP per capita,energy intensity of carbon;LMDI was used to calculate the cumulative contributions of each major influencing factor during the 20 years from 1997 to 2016.The five influencing factors all played a certain role in promoting the carbon emission of buildings.Then,based on time series analysis,and China's vast area,the reality of unbalanced regional development is the basis,using Moran 's I index construction of our country carbon emissions overall and local to explore the correlation analysis,the results show that the construction between China's provincial carbon emissions vary,provincial construction between carbon exists significant spatial correlation;Spatial lag model under random effects at the same time,measuring the spatial panel data: per capita GDP and urbanization level factors of building carbon emissions after the introduction of space elements was not significant,the influence of architectural energy and carbon intensity,energy intensity and construction industry after the introduction of space elements for building the influence degree of the carbon emissions increased,to illustrate the three major factors affecting spillover effects on the provincial level,thus improve the carbon emissions for buildings.Finally,based on the research results of time series and provincial space on the influencing factors of construction industry,the system dynamics model of carbon emission of construction industry in China is established,and the quantitative prediction analysis of carbon emission and energy consumption of construction industry in China from 2010 to 2030 is conducted based on scenario analysis method.The research results show that the reduction of social economy,energy saving level and various influencing factors of the construction industry have a certain effect on the reduction of carbon emission of buildings in China.Therefore,the best way to reduce carbon emissions in China's construction industry is to optimize the structure of the energy system,increase the proportion of clean energy use,improve the threshold of access to the construction industry and cultivate public awareness of green housing.Innovation point of this article is the construction influence factors of carbon emissions space analysis from the aspect of time series to the provincial level,makes the influencing factors of spatial panel data regression coefficient more reliability,at the same time this paper established the system dynamics model of discrete degree index,introduces the provincial plan as a whole both space and time,for our country construction of low carbon path provides good new research idea is put forward.