| Land use changes such as the rapid expansion of cities and the loss of forests and grasslands will lead to a large amount of carbon emissions,leading to climate warming.The burning of fossil fuels is the primary reason for the increase in atmospheric carbon emissions,and the effect of land use changes on the increase of global atmospheric carbon content is second only to fossil combustion,and the process and methods of land use affect the changes in carbon emissions.This paper takes Shaanxi Province as the research area,calculates land use carbon emissions based on land use data and energy consumption in various periods,and calculates the land carbon emission intensity,per capita carbon emissions,and economic carbon emission intensity of Shaanxi Province based on economic and population data.;Through the Tapio decoupling theory,explore the internal relationship between the growth of carbon emissions and economic development in the land development and utilization of Shaanxi Province;use the LMDI factor decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the land use in Shaanxi Province;use the IPAT model to predict the land use in Shaanxi Province The carbon emission scenarios of Shaanxi Province simulate the changes in land use carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province in 2030 under different scenarios.The research results of this article are expected to provide a reference for the government to adjust land use methods and improve carbon emission reduction strategies,and use the different scenarios simulated in this article as a reference to construct and implement better carbon emission reduction policies.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2018,the area of urban and rural construction land as the main carbon source-carrying energy consumption has increased significantly,and the area of forest land as the main carbon sink has increased slightly.Affected by the expansion of urban and rural construction land,the carbon emissions from land use in Shaanxi Province increased rapidly from 23,870,600 tons in 1995 to 1,260,320,200 tons in 2018,an increase of nearly six times.The carbon emission level of land use in Shaanxi Province is above the middle of the 30 provinces and cities nationwide.(2)Per capita carbon emissions showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2015,and the upward trend slowed down after 2015;per capita carbon emissions had the same trend as per capita carbon emissions;changes in carbon emissions per unit of GDP were in 1995-2018 The overall trend is decreasing.(3)The analysis of the interaction between economic growth and land use carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province through the decoupling model found that during the study period,Shaanxi Province experienced a transition from strong decoupling-expansion connection-expansion negative decoupling.(4)Using the LMDI factor decomposition method,it is found that the efficiency of land use structure is the promoting factor of land use carbon emissions,while the effect of land use carbon emission,economic efficiency,energy intensity and population size are the promoting factors of land use carbon emissions.(5)This paper simulates three land use carbon emission reduction scenarios in Shaanxi Province.From the simulation results of the low-speed emission reduction scenario,the medium-speed emission reduction scenario and the high-speed emission reduction scenario,only the high-speed emission reduction scenario can enable Shaanxi Province to achieve The development model of low-carbon emission reduction targets.Under this scenario,the emission reduction targets of total land carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions have been exceeded,but there is still a certain gap between the intensity of land carbon emissions and the emission reduction target value.Finally,based on the analysis results,provide suggestions for low-carbon emission reduction in Shaanxi Province. |
