Research On China’s Interprovincial Carbon Emission Forecast And Spatio-temporal Evolution Based On PCA-SVR

Since the Second World War,the global economy has evolved with each passing day.The economic development has brought a series of problems,especially the environmental problems,while improving human life.The global climate problem is an environmental problem that needs to be solved urgently.The global warming causes the two glaciers to melt away,and the rising sea level brings a hard situation to human survival.The hard situation is mainly caused by greenhouse gases,which are mainly derived from the combustion of carbonaceous compounds.In order to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions,it is necessary for countries all over the world to cooperate and assume differentiated responsibilities to reduce the emissions of global greenhouse gas.China is the country with the most carbon emissions in the world,which bears the important responsibility of energy saving and emission reduction.Therefore,it is necessary to execute policies of the reduction about carbon emission from across the country to curb the increasing trend of carbon emissions.Firstly,this paper compares the carbon emissions of 30 provinces and regions in China from 1995 to 2017,and analyzes the inter-provincial differences in 30 provinces and regions according to the carbon emissions of each province,the per capita carbon emissions of each province,and the carbon intensity of each province.By means of experiments this paper finds that the inter-provincial carbon emissions in China shows an increasing trend in 1995-2017;the per capita carbon emissions of individual provinces fluctuate in some years,but the per capita carbon emissions of China’s provinces also show a growth trend in 1995-2017;The trend of inter-provincial carbon emission intensity in 1995-2017 is exactly opposite to the trend of inter-provincial carbon emissions and inter-provincial per capita carbon emissions.In addition,after clustering,China’s inter-provincial carbon emissions can be divided into three types: low,medium and high emission types.Among the three types of carbon emissions,Shandong,Liaoning,and Guangdong are in high carbon emission areas,and their total amount is significantly higher than other provinces.Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang and other provinces are in low-carbon emission areas,but their inter-provincial carbon emission intensity is higher than other provinces.The difference analysis of inter-provincial carbon emissions shows that China’s carbon emissions are generally on the rise,but the decline in carbon intensity reflects the high-quality development of China’s economy.Secondly,based on the comparative analysis of carbon emissions in 30 provinces,it can be found that the factors affect inter-provincial carbon emissions.This paper selects seven characteristic variables of energy consumption structure,population,per capita carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,per capita GDP,industrial structure and urbanization level to explore the influencing factors.After the extraction of information gain,the three variables: population,per capita GDP and urbanization level mainly affect China’s inter-provincial carbon emissions,which can significantly promote the increase ofinter-provincial carbon emissions.Energy consumption structure and industrial structure will inhibit carbon emissions to a certain extent.In terms of China’s inter-provincial carbon emissions forecast,based on the current situation of inter-provincial carbon emissions and the main influencing factors of information gain screening,the PCA-SVR combination model of machine learning is used to predict China’s inter-provincial carbon emissions.It shows that the PCA-SVR model has small error and can predict the inter-provincial carbon emissions.In addition,the experiment found that the carbon emissions of different provinces are different,which is related to the population,GDP per capita and urbanization level of the provinces.Carbon emissions in 2023 will fluctuate between 9.95 billion tons and 28.01 billion.Finally,based on the prediction of inter-provincial carbon emissions,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution of inter-provincial carbon emissions.Empirical analysis shows that the non-equilibrium of China’s inter-provincial carbon emissions has gradually increased and shows severe polarization.In view of the non-equilibrium polarization phenomenon,it is necessary to timely control the unbalanced growth of inter-provincial carbon emissions,and actively formulate appropriate carbon emission reduction and control strategies to achieve the predetermined carbon emission reduction targets.