| Since the beginning of the 21st century,global warming has become increasingly prominent.According to the statistical results of climate science in 2015,the average global temperature has increased by 0.85 compared with the pre-industrial level.In accordance with this trend,the risk of extreme weather and natural disasters around the world will also increase.As the main cause of greenhouse effect,carbon emission has been widely concerned by governments and scholars all over the world.Since the reform and opening up,China has promoted industrialization and modernization,created a "growth miracle",and achieved remarkable economic achievements.According to the us energy information administration(EIA),China accounted for 28 per cent of global emissions in 2014,making it the world's lChinese argest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter.In 2015,the government put forward the action target of tackling climate change.By 2030,China's carbon emission intensity will be reduced by 60-65%compared with 2005.In order to effectively control China's carbon dioxide emissions and explore a feasible low-carbon economic development path,it is necessary to study the development trend and spatial distribution characteristics of China's technological progress,economic growth and carbon emission intensity.This paper first calculated and analyzed the relevant indicators of 30 provinces and cities in China(except Tibet)from 1998 to 2015.Then,based on STIRPAT model,the influence factors of carbon emission intensity in eastern,central,western and national regions were studied by using panel data model.Then,the spatial clustering of carbon emission intensity was analyzed from the spatial perspective,and the spatial econometric model was used for the follow-up comparative study.Finally draws the conclusion,and proposes the policy suggestion.The results show that:(1)overall,carbon emissions are on the rise,while carbon emission intensity began to show a relatively obvious downward trend since 2005,with a continuous downward trend.The level of technological progress and carbon emission intensity between regions show significant spatial agglomeration.The eastern coastal areas take the leading position in high technology level and carbon emission intensity,while the high carbon emission intensity is basically concentrated in the northern regions.(2)nationally,the per capita GDP of the second industry,total population,the influence of the carbon intensity is significant,both passed the 1%level of significance test,the elasticity coefficients were 0.4737,0.2458,0.9361,the population urbanization rate through the 5%level of significance test,the elasticity coefficient is 0.2844,and the rate of technological progress through the 5%level of significance test.By region,the impact of technological progress on carbon emission intensity becomes significant in the central and western regions,while the carbon emission intensity in the eastern region becomes unusually sensitive to urbanization.(3)based on the spatial perspective,the carbon emission intensity of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2015 showed significant spatial agglomeration characteristics and presented a gradually optimized trend on the whole.Spatial Durbin model estimation results of carbon emission intensity in China's provincial regions show that the model has a higher fitting degree after the introduction of the spatial lag term.The spatial lag terms of carbon emission intensity and urbanization only pass the significance test of 1%level,which are 0.1840 and-0.7420,respectively.This shows that regional carbon emission intensity has a positive impact on the adjacent areas,while urbanization has a negative impact on the carbon emission intensity of the adjacent areas.The spatial lag term of the proportion of the secondary industry and the population urbanization rate is the core influencing factor,and the carbon emission intensity is relatively elastic to these two factors,followed by technological progress. |
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