Dynamic Change Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And Its Emission Reduction Potential In Major Grain Producing Areas

The main grain producing areas take the priority of developing agricultural industry as the leading factor,and the development of other industries serves for the development of agriculture.The problems of economic development,food security and sustainable development in the main grain producing areas are becoming more and more serious.In the context of sustainable development,it is necessary to understand the dynamic changes of agricultural carbon emissions and the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas,so as to analyze the potential of carbon emission reduction in the main grain producing areas.The research contents are mainly divided into four parts: the first part is to analyze the development status and carbon emission sources of the main grain production areas,analyze the development status of the main grain production areas from the regional economic scale and industrial structure;select agricultural material inputs(fertilizer,pesticide,agricultural film,agricultural diesel,irrigation,ploughing and other inputs),rice planting and animal rumination(fecal management and intestinal fermentation))as the research object.The second is to analyze the measurement and characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas.Firstly,calculate the total agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas;secondly,analyze the total agricultural carbon emissions and trends in the main grain producing areas;finally,analyze the evolution characteristics of the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas.Thirdly,the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in the main grain producing areas were studied.The first is the theoretical analysis of the influencing factors of the main grain producing areas;the second is the analysis of the index and method selection of the influencing factors;the last is the analysis from the factors of efficiency,industrial structure,labor force and agricultural economic level.Fourthly,based on the carbon emission reduction policy of the main grain producing areas,the carbon emission reduction potential of each province in the main grain producing areas is analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas tends to increase,but the intensity of carbon emissions is in a downward trend.The proportion of agricultural carbon emission sources in the main grain producing areas is e farmland,e ruminant and e rice.(2)Based on the LMDI model,we can analyze the influencing factors of the main grain producing areas:(1)the efficiency factor is the most important factor to restrain the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas.(2)Industrial structure plays a less important role in restraining the increase of agricultural carbon emission.(3)Labor force is the second major factor to reduce agricultural carbon emissions in major grain producing areas.(4)Economic factors are the most important factors that lead to the increase of agricultural carbon emissions.(3)Based on the analysis of carbon emission reduction potential predicted by GM(1,1)model,Henan,Shandong,Hebei,Sichuan,Jiangsu and Anhui can achieve the carbon intensity reduction target of 40% in 2020;Shandong,Hebei,Jiangsu and Anhui can achieve the carbon intensity reduction target of 45% in 2020.None of the 13 major grain producing areas can achieve the goal of reducing carbon intensity by 60%-65% by 2030.