The Study On The Influence Of The Energy Price Change On China's Carbon Emissions Based On CGE Model

Global warming has caused the world's countries to take measures to reduce carbon emissions.Air pollution is serious in China,and fossil energy consumptio n accounts for a large proportion.At present,the Chinese government has set solving the problem of air pollution as one of its top priorities.At present,there are many problems in China's energy system,mainly because of the lack of an effective operation mechanism,and the core issue is energy prices.According to the World Bank,55% of the reduction in resource use is attributed to price adjustment,thus the reform of energy prices has become the core of the government's economic,energy and environmental policies.Therefore,the government has taken energy price reform as the focus of solving economic,energy and environmental problems.Based on the theories of Input-Output and Social Accounting Matrix,this paper establishes the Social Accounting Matrix table of China in 2012.According to the eight industries that were going to join the carbon trading market,this paper divided China into 15 sectors,and established a dynamic energy price Computable General Equilibrium model.This model adopted a six-tier nested production structure and neoclassical macro-closure theory.This paper set the prices of coal,petroleum,natural gas and thermal power change ±5% and ±10% as scenarios.Besides,through the three dynamic parameters of labor,capital and technological progress,this paper adjusted the research year to 2019,and studied the impact of energy price changes on China's and various industries' carbon emissions in 2019.The results show that for coal,oil and natural gas,the rise of one energy price will lead to the increase of carbon emissions of the other two energy sectors,but carbon emissions from all the remaining sectors declined;rising thermal power prices will lead to a decline in carbon emissions in all sectors.Carbon emissions from different sectors are affected to different degrees,and the decline and rise of energy prices have opposite effects on carbon emissions.Coal price has the greatest impact on national carbon emissions,followed by thermal power,natural gas and oil.By properly raising the price of coal and reducing the consumption of coal,it will be conducive to China's emission reduction work.This study provides a reference for scholars to analyze the relationship between China's energy prices and carbon emissions,as well as enriches the theoretical framework of China's energy policy.