Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Embodied In Trade:Measurement Models And Driving Factors

Green house gas(GHG)emissions embodied in trade(SEET)may play an important role in affecting national responsibilities toward pollutant emission reduction within the context of global greenhouse gas emission policy.This paper analyzes the change of the SEET associated with energy consumption from the perspective of a country and a sector between 1995 and 2011,exploring the evolution characteristic of the sources and flows of the SEET for 39 countries,as well as measuring the production-based and consumption-based global GHG emissions’ inventory and investigating the impact of international trade on the allocation of national pollutant emissions ’ reduction obligations.At the same time,this paper applies the Spatical Durbin Model(SDM)to analysis the possible factors that might affecting the transfer of GHG emissions.The mean findings are as follows:(1)From the perspective of time change,the SEET from 1995-2011 and the greenhouse gas emissions calculated based on consumption and production accounting all showed a significant growth trend.At the same time,the spatial auto-correlation of inflows and outflows of SEET increased significantly between 1995 and 2011,and the spatial correlation of greenhouse gas transfer emissions became increasingly close.This shows that with the development of global integration and the gradual increase of international trade,SEET products account for an increasing proportion of greenhouse gas emissions accounting.For countries such as Russia and India,which are mainly export-oriented,they have assumed more responsibility for reducing emissions,while developed countries such as the United States and the European Union have transferred their domestic greenhouse gases to other countries by means of trade imports and avoided a large number of emission reduction responsibilities.(2)From the perspective of spatial change,from 1995 to 2011,the countries with the largest SEET in the world were the United States,China,Russia.These countries account for more than 40% of global emissions,so for these countries,they should bear more responsibility for reducing emissions.At the same time,the country with the largest net outflow of SEET is Russia,and the largest net inflow of SEET is in the United States.The absolute value of the amount of transfer is increasing in both countries with net SEET outflows and inflows.It is worth noting that the direction of greenhouse gas transfer in Brazil and other resource-rich countries changed from 1995 to 2011,gradually changing from a net inflow country to a net outflow country,while China and other countries that are developing rapidly during this period,due to With the country’s population growth and economic development,domestic demand is increasing,leading to the gradual change of its SEET from net outflows to net inflows.(3)From the perspective of influencing factors,population,energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure and per capita GDP are important factors influencing SEET flows.The two most important factors are energy intensity and population.From the perspective of SEET inflow,the total effect of energy intensity is-0.534,and the total effect of population is 1.061.From the perspective of SEET outflow,the total effect of energy intensity is-0.420,and the total effect of population is 0.143.For the inflows and outflows of countries,the main influencing factors are different.For the outflow of SEET,the most important factors are the population size and energy intensity.For the inflow of trade hidden greenhouse gases,the most important factors are the population size and per capita GDP.This is because the import of hidden greenhouse gas trade is directly related to the demand in the region,and the export volume of trade hidden greenhouse gases is directly related to the production technology and production efficiency of the region.At the same time,it can be seen from the Moran’s I result that the greenhouse gas transfer has significant spatial autocorrelation,and the spatial spillover effect of the influencing factors is significant.Changes in SEET,population,energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure and per capita GDP in a certain region will not only cause changes in the amount of SEET in the region,but also may cause SEET transfers in adjacent regions or countries through spatial transmission mechanisms.