Research On The Model And Risk Of The Power Generation Right Trading Between Wind Power And Thermal Power

The wind power accommodation becomes more serious with the increase of wind power capacity.In addition,most of power comes from thermal units,which makes the emission problem caused by the consumption of coal is always the main concern of energy-saving and emission-reduction in the electric power industry.The power generation right trading between wind power and thermal power combined with the research background of domestic and foreign power market transactions can solve the accommodation problem considering two present situations of the wind power curtailment and the emission pollution from thermal units.In order to achieve the optimal allocation of power resources,the transaction between wind farms which have wind power curtailment and thermal units which have high coal consumption and emissions is necessary.The main content of this paper includes four aspects:(1)Nowadays the wind curtailment situation is increasingly severe in China,and'Internet +' is integrated into electric power industry step by step.This paper proposes a super short-time decentralized power generation right trading between wind farms and thermal units(PGRTBWT).The optimal decisions can be rapidly obtained by'Internet+'distributed decision support system and cloud computing.Because of the randomness of wind power,the deviation always exists between real energy and the trading energy,which makes it unable for wind farms to perform the trading plan accurately.Therefore,this paper introduces the wind power unbalanced cost to analyze and calculate deviation cost.Finally,a case simulation shows the trading model is rational.This paper provides a reference for the accommodating of wind power.(2)Considering of the abandoned problem of wind power are facing more and more serious,in order to solve the problem of wind power consumption,generation rights trading between wind power and thermal power to complete wind power consumptive again worth exploring.this paper draws a comprehensive reference from principal-agent theory to discuss in detail the market structure and trading mechanism of generation rights trading between wind power and thermal power,and proposed considering benefit model about the wind power unbalanced cost of generation rights trading between wind power and thermal power.it shows the rationality of generation right trading model between wind power and thermal power through principal-agent model,it tries to provide a reasonable method of trading for the wind power consumptive again.(3)In consideration of the current generation right trading market informationis is failed to be completely opened,the trading individuals need develop own advantageous bidding strategy according to limited information.This paper makes full use of Cellular Automata and Directed Networks to establish dynamic bidding simulation model for each trading individual which participates in the multivariate generation right trading between wind power and thermal power.Firstly,it combines with evaluation gain of each trading individual in the historical period and risk gain of neighborhood individual in the current period.Secondly,it establishes historical bidding strategy transfer matrix and neighborhood bidding strategy transfer matrix,which formed a new round bidding strategy between each trading individual through the organic combination of both.Finally,it carries out analysis and evaluation of bidding simulation results through R/S analysis and its Hurst parameter,meanwhile,it is used to make quantitative analysis of bidding strategy and rank-sensitive for each trading individual.This simulation results show that this simulation method can provide an effective and feasible bidding decision under the current environment of asymmetric information of generation right trading.(4)Generation right trading between wind power and thermal power is the use of market-oriented means to promote wind power renewable energy accommodating,thermal power unit energy saving and emission reduction and be effective means to control carbon emissions in electric power industry.However,the randomness and volatility of wind power,and facing the uncertainty of the two parties in the process of information declaration,make the transaction between the two sides be the blind pursuit of trading profits while ignored the risk of the transaction.In view of this,this paper is based on the theory method of risk management in the financial field,taking the conditional value at risk(CVaR)as a risk measurement index of generation right trading between wind power and thermal power,established multi-objective optimization model between revenue of it and its CVaR based on the perspective of the social level and its self perspective of wind farm.By example simulation,it is considered the risk of power generation right trading between wind power and thermal power to avoid the blind pursuit of profit both parties,Providing reasonably decision support for it with an orderly manner.