Study On The Method Of Forecasting The Unit Price Of Road Material

Under the condition that road construction funds are not abundant,it is a common concern of the industry how to predict the market and predict its price in time.This paper analyzes some important factors that affect the material price and applies appropriate models to predict the material price.The main research work is divided into the following parts.(1)The disturbance of the price of road and land is affected by the main reasons of the national economic regulation,policy change and supply and demand.Based on the analysis of the fluctuation coefficient and index of material price,we know that the price change of highway materials has periodic seasonal characteristics.(2)In this paper,the grey system theory is used to focus on the uncertainty in the prediction of road building materials price.Based on the classical GM(1,1)prediction model in grey prediction theory,we predict the material target price from several aspects,such as original value,background value,quasi gray derivative,discretization and model parameters.At the same time,we introduce the variable weights buffer operator,its purpose is to reduce the degree of external disturbance to the prediction system,the principle is the original sequence thought of new information priority and time series to predict the process of the formation is weakening buffer operator or strengthen,weaken the randomness,highlighting its regularity,and make the data true as far as possible,from the predicted results and the comparison,the factors that the original data is affected by the external disturbance will be reduced,and the accuracy of the predicted target results will be improved.(3)The impact factor on the basis to be determined by regression analysis of highway material price fluctuation and the price index,price index of raw materials,fuel,power price,GDP growth rate,traffic to complete the forehead index of investment in fixed assets,loan interest rate,loan balance of financial institutions,the price of oil as well as the relationship between the price of iron ore.In this paper,the correlation of different influencing factors in the forecast of highway material price is also different.(4)Regression sequence prediction method is a widely applied and relatively strong theory prediction method,at the same time is also a prediction method for dealing with many factors of interaction,the basic approach is to study the relationship between prediction objects and other influencing factors.In the basic idea of this paper is to analyze the causes of material price and the external interference factors that affect the price fluctuation of materials,we use appropriate prediction models to establish prediction equations,and predict the future trend of road material prices based on mathematical models and existing data.Based on the original price data,the regression analysis method find out the relationship between the influencing factors through mathematical modeling,finds out the rules from the perspective of statistics;because the price of materials is affected by many factors,the multi-linear regression prediction model is used to predict the trend of material prices.Accordingto the original data and the determined influence factors,the SPSS software is used to predict the price of highway material.On the basis of selecting the factors that may interfere with the prediction results,this paper selects the price of cement,steel bar,asphalt concrete and other materials in different years as the prediction objects to analyze and predict.The predicted results have a good correlation with the real results of the original data,and also verify the feasibility of the model.