Research On Progressive Risk Management Of Assembly Residential Project Based On Bayesian Network

Construction project management have three major goals:progress goal,cost goal and quality goal.The implementation of fabricated residential projects in a dynamic and complex environment,coupled with the relevant professional construction technology is not mature enough,the relative lack of construction experience and other progress risk factors for the normal implementation of the project schedule have a certain impact,so the assembly type residential project The progress of risk management can not be ignored.Assembled project risk managers correctly and efficiently identify project schedule risks,focus on key schedule risk factors,analyze their impact on project schedules,and follow up the progress management of project progress in real time,and formulate corresponding schedule risk factor prevention and response plans,Is the key to the successful implementation of fabricated residential projects.Firstly,the background of the development of fabricated residential projects is expounded.Based on the research results of the progress risk management of construction projects both at home and abroad,based on the related theoretical basis of the assembly-type residential projects and risk management,literature review,brainstorming and questionnaire methods are used Method to identify the risk factors for the progress of the assembly-type residential project,analyze the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of schedule delay caused by the assembly-type residential project,establish the risk level estimation matrix and determine the greatest impact on the schedule of the assembly type residential project Of the 12 key risk factors for the progress of this project for the construction of residential project risk risk Bayesian network probability model construction.Secondly,based on the related data,using GeNIe2.0 software,K2 algorithm is used to study the corresponding data structure,the conditional probability distribution of each node variable is given,and the Bayesian network graph is obtained.By further adjusting and optimizing the network graph,The construction of probability model of schedule risk of assembled residential project is completed,and then the Bayesian network of the schedule risk of fabricated residential project is reasoned and analyzed.Proposed control measures of schedule risk management of assembled residential project are proposed to improve the assembly Residential project in the progress of the management level.Finally,the progress risk of assembly-type residential project progress risk Bayesian network is applied to the schedule management of Shenyang Metro Lishui New City(public rental)project,and the progress risk factors of Group A of Shenyang Lishui New City(public rental)Phase I project are analyzed.Build the Bayesian network probabilistic model of project progress risk risk,come to the expectation of progress delay in Group A of Phase I of Lishui New City(public rental)project of Shenyang Metro,compare it with the actual progress of the project and the difference of the planned progress of the project,The progress of the prefabricated house project can be effectively predicted by the constructed Bayesian network probabilistic model.