Research Of Risk Management In Expressway Toll-Gate Reconstruction And Extension Projects

With the total mileage of our expressway continuously increasing,subsidiary facilities on expressway fail to meet the need of traffic demand.For example,many service areas and expressway toll-gates of expressway from Beijing to Hongkong and Macao are going to be or being reconstructed and extended.Reconstruction and extension projects of expressway toll-gate belong to a kind of complex system engineering,which cover a wide range and have huge influence on the society.Recording to normal stage of project establishment,designing departments given to make prediction of economic situation at first step,then make prediction of expressway traffic volume but hardly take focus on risk management of the project.This paper propose that is of close relationship between expressway toll-gate reconstruction and extension and the lack of risk management.So it is of great importance to make research on risk management in expressway toll-gate reconstruction and extension projects.My research are as follows: Firstly introduce the targets completed during “The fifth five year plan” about expressway,propose that it is a effective way to solve the contradiction between expressway and subsidiary facilities,put view that express toll-gate reconstruction and extension cannot be ignored and the necessary to work on risk management in early stage.Secondly compare studies home and abroad to propose assessment method and the method of analytic hierarchy process,fuzzy theory and back propagation neural network,combine engineering cases to make analysis.Thirdly make research on risk recognition in expressway toll-gate reconstruction and extension projects,based on the characteristics of projects to establish system of risk evaluation which can be properly used in risk management in expressway toll-gate reconstruction and extension projects.Then through combining analytic hierarchy process combined with fuzzy theory against back propagation neural network ensure the level of risk,propose that analytic hierarchy process combined with fuzzy theory has much more advantages in risk management.At last,according to the results of the comparative analysis,combined with projects,propose control measures of risk management.