Study On Forecasting Method Of Passenger Flow In Urban Rail Transit Transfer Station

The urban rail transit transfer station is located at the intersection of different rail transit lines,and it is an important node of the urban rail transit system.It has the amount of transfer passenger flow except the inbound passenger flow and the outbound passenger flow.The size of stations,platform length.AFC system and scale are based on the passenger flow of transfer station.Development of urban rail transit network and the new line access can cause a sharp increase in passenger flow;now we should forecast the passenger flow of the transfer station in order to provide basis for the extension of the transfer station.This paper aims to study the forecasting method of passenger flow in the transfer station.After summarizing the passenger flow forecasting methods of transfer station,aiming at the deficiency of existing methods,reserches the transfer station passenger flow forecasting method by the combination of theory and practice,establishing the passenger flow forecasting model that based on the resident trip model chain.Firstly,establishing the passenger flow attraction model,detenming the attraction area of station.It introduces the generalized travel cost.Establishing the index evaluation system of the generalized travel cost based on economy,rapidity,comfort and security.Two calculation methods are given according to the analytic hierarchy process and theory of economics.The initial date are standardized in former,and after hierarchical ordering and consistency checking,then we get the weight coefficient of all levels of indicators.The latter determining the generalized travel cost by the time value.Then analyzing the residents' trip in the attraction area,establishing the resident trip mode chain.Then we can get the inbound passenger flow,outbound passenger flow and the transfer passenger flow by caculating the probability of each mode chain.There are two methodes when calculating the probability of travel mode chain:Logit model and fuzzy evaluation model.The former is the Logit model that is commonly used;The latter establishes the fuzzy mapping functiong,then we can get the probability of every model chain.There are four kinds of methods for predicting passenger flow from the combination of two kinds of generalized travel cost and two kinds of probability models.Lastly,take the transfer station-Kai Faqu station on line 3 of the Dalian urban rapid rail transit for example.Forecasting the passenger flow by four kinds of metheds based on the survey data.And making comparison with the rael value.Getting a conclusion:The Method Two that using analytic hierarchy process to calculate the generalized travel cost and using fuzzy evaluation to calculate probability,is reasonable to forecast passenger flow.