The Research On The Characteristic Of Shared Transport User And Its Sharing-rate Prediction Model

Along with the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,Chinese cities are in the process of rapid spatial reconstruction.The tremendous development of shared transport has injected new vitality into the city's binary transportation structure,which was originally composed of private transport and public transport.In the context of the extremely limited urban transportation resources and the frequent transportation supply and demand problems,in order to systematically and scientifically research the impact of shared transport on urban transportation structure and optimize the structure of traffic mode,taking the shared transport as the research object,this paper systematically studies the characteristics of the shared transport user,the preferences of the travelers,and the choice behavior of the urban residents' travel mode considering the shared transport.First of all,the factors that may influence the choice of urban residents' trip mode are analyzed from three aspects:Traveler attribute,travel attribute and transport mode attribute.Determine the traveler's gender,age,family income,education level,occupation,vehicle ownership,whether have the vehicle driving license,travel purpose,travel distance,travel time,convenience,reliability,cost,comfort,green and accessibility as the factors that influence the travel decision making.According to the results of the analysis,a questionnaire survey was conducted to compare the choice of travel mode and the importance of the traffic mode attributes of shared transport.The collected data are preprocessed,and the processed data are used to conduct describe statistics analysis of the shared transport traveler,and the input variables of the discrete choice model of the residents travel mode are determined,which lays the foundation for the construction of the later model.Secondly,considering the attribute of travel mode is a direct criterion for travellers to make travel decisions,fuzzy theory is applied to study the attribute preference of travelers who use the shared transport.This paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to describe travelers with convenience,reliability,cost,comfort,green and accessibility of the six transportation properties of the relative importance of comparative judgment to eliminate the uncertainty and fuzziness in the decision making process.Finally we get the all the right to make sure the fuzzy preference of users sharing traffic.The research shows that for the shared-bikes user the convenience ranks first,with accessibility,cost,reliability,green and comfort following by one.While for the shared-cars user the convenience ranks first,with cost,reliability,comfort,accessibility and green following by one.This conclusion provides some reference for promoting the development of shared transport.Finally,on the basis of the urban transport structure that made up of private transport and public transport,the paper joins the shared transport provide for the choice of travel mode to traveler.Combined with the questionnaire data in Nanjing,based on utility maximization and regret minimization rule,the MNL model of travel mode selection is established.The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters of the model,and the Newton method is used to search for the solution of the equation.By analyzing the calibration results of the model,paper reveals the related attribute characteristics of the travelers using shared transport,and explain the factors that significantly affect their travel mode choice behavior.