| The Global Energy Internet is an important way to optimize energy allocation and solve issues regarding the environment and energy supply for the mankind from a global perspective.It is also important for China's "One Belt,One Road" project and the construction of the community of common destiny.Among them,the construction of transnational power grids is an important part of The Global Energy Internet construction.Compared with the general long-distance power transmission projects,transnational power grids features wide span,long construction period,various investment subjects,complex interest relationships,etc.,which may result in greater uncertainty in investment income of the project.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the risk assessment system of transnational power grids.In view of the many risks that transnational power grids investment may face,this paper first reviews the internal relationships of the main influencing factors of investment risk based on system dynamics,and has identified 27 risk points using risk structure decomposition method from the perspectives of the country,the enterprise,and the project.Secondly,an optimization model for the selection of key indicators for transnational power grids investment risk assessment has been constructed using the structural entropy-factor analysis method.The opinions of 30 experts in the related fields on the validity of the 27 risks were collected through an electronic survey questionnaire,and 17 key indicators that could comprehensively reflect risk characteristics have been selected after a thorough analysis of the survey data.Finally,this paper sets up a TOPSIS transnational power grids investment risk assessment model based on AHP-entropy weight combined weighting,and selects a resource country planning.Three transnational projects selected from the database would serve as evaluation targets,and verify the scientificity and rationality of the indicator system and evaluation system.This paper adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to construct a more reasonable investment risk evaluation index system and evaluation system for transnational power grids,which can provide investors a foundation for decision making and help improve investment efficiency and avoid investment risks.The research has reached two conclusions:(1)External factors such as political risk,and policy risk,are important aspects regarding the investment risk of transnational power grids and investors should also focus on market risk;(2)Among evaluation indicators,five of them weighs more,including bilateral relations,bilateral relations,national conflicts and conflicts,GDP growth,load forecasting risks,exchange rate risks,indicating that macro risks have a greater impact on transnational power grids investment.As far as investment subjects are concerned,these external risks are generally unpredictable and uncontrollable.They should pay close attention to these risks and take active and effective measures. |
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