Research On Performance Prediction Of Power Supply Enterprise Based On System Dynamics

Enterprise performance is the mapping of corporate financial strategy,the ultimate goal of performance management is to help achieve the various strategic objectives of enterprises,and achieve stable and healthy development of enterprises.The traditional enterprise performance management system based on accrual basis,after control,can sum up the past activities of the decision-making results,but it is not good to manage activities and to predict the future,this is an important cause of the short-sighted behavior of enterprises.In the long run,it will inevitably lead to the loss of the core competitiveness of enterprises,leading enterprises to be eliminated in the fierce competition.Based forward-looking thinking on systemic high levels,it can construct the dynamic performance prediction model through the decomposition of business goals and the connection of the business activities.We can use the prediction model to predict the performance of enterprises.And we can analyze the difference of the forecast performance and the goals of the enterprises,and adjust to achieve business goals.Power supply enterprise is the basic unit of power purchase and sale,and also the most direct element of the impact of the power industry on the national economy.Therefore,the power supply enterprises is also more and more urgent need to establish an effective strategic performance system in the process of reform and development,to promote the department and staff strive to improve the performance level around the strategic objectives of the organization.This paper uses system dynamics performance prediction model based on the combination of the power supply enterprise’s own characteristics,implementation issues of power supply enterprise strategic performance goals,aims to explore how to adapt to the environment change as soon as possible in the current power supply enterprise reform and Internet plus implement,how to achieve its strategic goals,quickly establish their market competitiveness.In view of the above situation,this paper firstly expounds the background and significance of enterprise performance prediction,combined with the financial and non-financial indicators to predict the usefulness of research,further analysis of the current situation of domestic and foreign performance prediction,comprehensive comparative analysis on the performance prediction method,the prediction of shortcomings and deficiencies existing in the method of performance,describes the system dynamics performance prediction model the advantage of the performance prediction;then the related concepts,the Balanced Scorecard theory and system dynamics theory were introduced;then analysis combined with the characteristics of the power supply enterprise products and management system,through the analysis of the strategic level of the balanced scorecard,fully considering the interaction of enterprise financial and non-financial factors after constructing strategy a map of the power supply enterprise;analysis of qualitative description of the Balanced Scorecard and causal feedback and using system dynamics The causal indicators of the strategic map feedback,performance prediction management dynamic and feedback is considered based on traditional static performance management;on the basis of constructing the prediction model of power supply enterprise performance,and through empirical model test,sensitivity analysis confirmed the validity of the model based on the use of enterprise performance;the prediction model to forecast the company,and the four target in the implementation of the problem has been studied by SPSS analysis showed there was significant difference between the predicted and the customer satisfaction index values,analysis of the causes of the differences the corresponding suggestions for further action.