Study On Fluctuation And Relevance Of Freight Transport Price Index In Ningbo Shipping Market And Highway Freight Market

Since Ningbo published the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index(NCFI)and the Ningbo Highway Freight Index(NHFI)in 2013,Ningbo has acted as the "barometer" of Ningbo shipping market and road freight market.It effectively reflects the change and trend of shipping market and road freight market in Ningbo.From the perspective of price,this paper makes a series of studies on NCFI and NHFI of Ningbo,the main contents of which are as follows:In view of this situation,this paper analyzes the ARMA?VAR model and Granger Causality Test under the environment of Eviews by using the traditional time series analysis from the point of view of price.The pulse response is used to study deeply the fluctuation regularity and correlation between NCFI and NHFI.The results show that the NCFI and the NHFI are more changeable.There are different regularity in different periods,but they all follow the cycle fluctuation of high and low undulation and develop forward,all accompany with seasonal and trend factor,but the degree of influence is different.Although there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the NCFI and the NHFI for various reasons,with the recovery and development of the international economy,the influence between them will become more and more important.Finally,Under the circumstance of complex international environment change,this paper puts forward concrete countermeasures and suggestions from two aspects of logistics transportation company and official government,so as to make the Ningbo maritime transport market and highway transport market change under the condition of the index change.Avoiding the risk of price fluctuation,ensuring the balance of supply and demand of transportation market,finally laying a solid foundation for perfecting the Maritime Silk Road Index system and guiding the healthy development of logistics industry.