Research On The Characteristics Of Risk-benefit Transfer In Flood Protection Scheduling And Program Evaluation In The Hun River Basin

Our country is seriously affected by flood disasters,and economic losses caused by flood disasters are inestimable.At the same time,a large amount of abandoned water during the flood season will make it difficult to store water in the reservoir to the Xingli water level,affecting normal water supply.With the gradual change of people’s cognition of flood,human beings are increasingly concerned about using flood water as a resource.How to weigh the risk of flooding and the benefits it brings is becoming a research hotspot.The existing flood risk study believes that as long as the flood risk index does not exceed a certain threshold,it is considered that there is no risk.However,certain indicators in the system are in a high-risk state for a long time,which increases the probability that the system will generate risks.Therefore,for the assessment of flood risk,it is incomplete to consider whether the index exceeds the preset.This paper aims at the above situation by calculating the main risk-benefit indicators in the Hun River Basin.Then use the risk-benefit negotiated decision model to determine the optimal solution under various frequency flood conditions.On this basis,a multi-layer fuzzy evaluation method is selected to optimize the optimal water level under different preference conditions and provide decision-making basis for reservoir control application.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)Firstly,put forward the principle of risk transmission and comparative analysis of expert analysis,logic analysis and other risk factor identification methods,combined with the characteristics of water conservancy system,determine the use of fault tree theory for risk factor identification.And on this basis,according to the characteristics and research content of the river basin,the risk factors are screened.(2)According to the rules of Dahuofang reservoir forecasting and scheduling,according to different flood situations,the process of reservoir regulation and the flood process of downstream section combination are calculated and analyzed under the condition of different starting water level and different flood composition.When the basin encounters floods of 2%,1% and 0.33%,the downstream section risk is mainly affected by floods in the interval.When0.1% flood occurs,the risk of downstream section is different due to different water level adjustment,and the main influencing factors are different.When the flood occurs at a frequency of 0.01%,the risk of the downstream segment mainly comes from the discharge ofthe reservoir.The main factors affecting the continuous operation of high water level in the downstream section are the discharge flow from the reservoir.(3)Making use of the method of continuous adjustment of flood prevention and control,the adjustment of the water level of different houses in Dahuofang for many years has been done and the dynamic change of the corresponding index of profitability evaluation has been obtained.The adjustment of water level has little effect on the water supply guarantee rate of industry and agriculture.The average annual water deficit of industry and agriculture decreases with the rise of water level;the average amount of abandoned water of many years decreases with the rise of water level;years of average daily water supply increases with the rising water level.(4)Using the entropy weight method to determine the objective weights,and using a negotiated decision-making model,the negotiated solutions for design floods of different frequencies and different preferences were obtained.On this basis,using the consultation solution and the psychological affordability hypothesis,the alternative solution of the limited water level in the Dahuofang Reservoir was determined,and the multi-level fuzzy optimization method was used to obtain the optimal solution for the adjusted water level under different preferences.When the same emphasis is placed on the situation and the appropriate emphasis on flood risk or profitability,the optimal water level is 127.2m.With an emphasis on flood risk,the optimal water level is 126.6m.With an emphasis on profitability,the optimal water level is 127.4m.